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Want to try to turn this into something concrete enough that we can bet on?

by jefftk 3y ago

raincole 3y ago
I was kinda tempted, but I don't think there is such a good metric to measure it. (Since the job market is heavily influenced by interest rate etc... and if I were confident at predicting macro economics I would just bet on stock)
- jefftk 3y ago
  What if we picked 10 prompts that it seems like an AI should be able to depict well, but it can't yet? And then iff the best AI tool in February can do the majority of them you win?
  - raincole 3y ago
    I'll bet against it tho. I don't actually believe pure text-prompt-to-image will improve much (not in a few months at least). I just believe there will be more non-text tools to guide AI, like LoRA and control net, and they will be more accessible. Control net kinda did what you said but in a different timeframe: it was quite difficult to tell AI to generate a person "sitting with their legs cross". Today, it's relatively easy to do this with control net, but still hard with text prompt only. Edit: and the sibling comment made me question myself why I would ever take a random bet on the internet.
    - jefftk 3y ago
      We started this thread with: sambleckley> producing a specific image with generative AI is sometimes almost impossible justrealist> Who could possibly think this will be the case six months from now? me> I'd bet on this being true six months from now I thought you disagreed with me on this, but it sounds like maybe not?
      - raincole 3y ago
        I was just stating the improvement on SD we've seen since DELL-E 2 and Midjourney came out wasn't just about "quality of image", but also about "have something specific and moderately complex in mind". Thus I mentioned textual inversion vs LoRA/ControlNet.
satvikpendem 3y ago
I wonder why people take random internet bets, I've seen this on Twitter as well from some prominent people in the tech world, who just like betting on outcomes I guess. I saw it most recently with the LK-99 "is it a real room temp superconductor or not?" bets.
- icegreentea2 3y ago
  I think often someone tries to frame things into bets to pierce the layers of instinctual contrarianism and "have strong opinions weakly held" that often pervades internet discussion. More charitably, reframing into a bet gives a relatively neutral opportunity of re-stating the discussion/argument to more clearly identify areas of agreement/disagreement (since a clear definition of the disagreement is crucial for forming a bet).

Want to try to turn this into something concrete enough that we can bet on?

by jefftk 3y ago

Want to try to turn this into something concrete enough that we can bet on?

I was kinda tempted, but I don't think there is such a good metric to measure it. (Since the job market is heavily influenced by interest rate etc... and if I were confident at predicting macro economics I would just bet on stock)

jefftk 3y ago
What if we picked 10 prompts that it seems like an AI should be able to depict well, but it can't yet? And then iff the best AI tool in February can do the majority of them you win?
- raincole 3y ago
  I'll bet against it tho. I don't actually believe pure text-prompt-to-image will improve much (not in a few months at least). I just believe there will be more non-text tools to guide AI, like LoRA and control net, and they will be more accessible. Control net kinda did what you said but in a different timeframe: it was quite difficult to tell AI to generate a person "sitting with their legs cross". Today, it's relatively easy to do this with control net, but still hard with text prompt only. Edit: and the sibling comment made me question myself why I would ever take a random bet on the internet.
  - jefftk 3y ago
    We started this thread with: sambleckley> producing a specific image with generative AI is sometimes almost impossible justrealist> Who could possibly think this will be the case six months from now? me> I'd bet on this being true six months from now I thought you disagreed with me on this, but it sounds like maybe not?
    - raincole 3y ago
      I was just stating the improvement on SD we've seen since DELL-E 2 and Midjourney came out wasn't just about "quality of image", but also about "have something specific and moderately complex in mind". Thus I mentioned textual inversion vs LoRA/ControlNet.

satvikpendem 3y ago

I wonder why people take random internet bets, I've seen this on Twitter as well from some prominent people in the tech world, who just like betting on outcomes I guess. I saw it most recently with the LK-99 "is it a real room temp superconductor or not?" bets.

icegreentea2 3y ago
I think often someone tries to frame things into bets to pierce the layers of instinctual contrarianism and "have strong opinions weakly held" that often pervades internet discussion. More charitably, reframing into a bet gives a relatively neutral opportunity of re-stating the discussion/argument to more clearly identify areas of agreement/disagreement (since a clear definition of the disagreement is crucial for forming a bet).