4 ms·
It is not sufficient to know one of them is of some sex. For the probability to be 1/3, you need to be asked what the probability is that one of them is a speci
by kqr 3y ago
It is not sufficient to know one of them is of some sex. For the probability to be 1/3, you need to be asked what the probability is that one of them is a specific sex, not just any sex.
- kuboble 3y agoI think the trickiest part is that the other party willingly shared some information and their motives affect probabilities way more than any math. I find it easier to think about this problem stated like this: let's say you go around asking people " do you have exactly 2 children and at least one of them is a boy?". What are the odds of them having 2 boys if they answered yes.
- HWR_14 3y agoAll probability questions suffer from the same bias. The Monty Hall problem doesn't work if the person offering the choice has some agency and motives.