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I agree with the general sentiment that things seems to be improving over time. But it won't always be like that, as at one point we'll reach AI winter again, a

I agree with the general sentiment that things seems to be improving over time. But it won't always be like that, as at one point we'll reach AI winter again, and then it doesn't matter if the ecosystem moved incredibly fast for N years, you can't extrapolate that to future developments.

spacemanspiff01 3y ago
There is all of this talk about an ai winter, and somehow I just kind of doubt it. Unlike in past decades there is a ridiculous amount of money, energy, and time going into the space, and unlike 40 years ago (or even 10) there are things that can actually make money now, and are not just academic research. (See stable diffusion/llama/ chatgpt) There will be businesses that actually make money on these technologies, and they will be research heavy (even a 5% improvement is a big deal) as things are still getting figured out. I could see speed dropping back towards 2017 like rates, but I kind of doubt we will ever see an true ai winter like the 90's early 00's The field is just too young with too many things as of yet untried, along with the fact that I doubt funding will dry up any time soon. (There are too many interests, from Nvidia wanting to sell more chips, to Microsoft wanting to sell more productivity, to defence, and political concerns between the US and China.) Yes, it won't go on forever, but also this time seems qualitatively different from the past AI cycles. (Granted I was not alive then)
- satvikpendem 3y ago
  Not that the AI summer/winter cycle won't ever stop, but people said the exact same things about how it's different this time for previous winters too. We might see plateaus after transformers and realize that we can't improve for some number of years.
- capableweb 3y ago
  > The field is just too young with too many things as of yet untried The field has been around since the 50s with various summers and winters, with each summer having people saying it's now too big to fail, with ever increasing resources and time being spent on it, only for it to eventually stagnate again for some time. If there is one field in computer science I wouldn't call "too young", it would be AI. The first "true" AI winters happened in the 1970s/1980s, and second one in the late 1980s. You seem to have missed some of them by a large margin. It's the natural movement of ecosystems that are hyped a lot. They get hyped until there is no more air, and it goes back into "building foundations" mode until someone hits gold and the cycle repeats all over again.

spacemanspiff01 3y ago

There is all of this talk about an ai winter, and somehow I just kind of doubt it. Unlike in past decades there is a ridiculous amount of money, energy, and time going into the space, and unlike 40 years ago (or even 10) there are things that can actually make money now, and are not just academic research. (See stable diffusion/llama/ chatgpt) There will be businesses that actually make money on these technologies, and they will be research heavy (even a 5% improvement is a big deal) as things are still getting figured out. I could see speed dropping back towards 2017 like rates, but I kind of doubt we will ever see an true ai winter like the 90's early 00's The field is just too young with too many things as of yet untried, along with the fact that I doubt funding will dry up any time soon. (There are too many interests, from Nvidia wanting to sell more chips, to Microsoft wanting to sell more productivity, to defence, and political concerns between the US and China.) Yes, it won't go on forever, but also this time seems qualitatively different from the past AI cycles. (Granted I was not alive then)

satvikpendem 3y ago
Not that the AI summer/winter cycle won't ever stop, but people said the exact same things about how it's different this time for previous winters too. We might see plateaus after transformers and realize that we can't improve for some number of years.
capableweb 3y ago
> The field is just too young with too many things as of yet untried The field has been around since the 50s with various summers and winters, with each summer having people saying it's now too big to fail, with ever increasing resources and time being spent on it, only for it to eventually stagnate again for some time. If there is one field in computer science I wouldn't call "too young", it would be AI. The first "true" AI winters happened in the 1970s/1980s, and second one in the late 1980s. You seem to have missed some of them by a large margin. It's the natural movement of ecosystems that are hyped a lot. They get hyped until there is no more air, and it goes back into "building foundations" mode until someone hits gold and the cycle repeats all over again.