> except for one visit to the exact location where zoonotic spillover would have happened. You're continuing to assume no cryptic spread. The IFR is low, and t

> except for one visit to the exact location where zoonotic spillover would have happened. You're continuing to assume no cryptic spread. The IFR is low, and the overdispersed epidemiological dynamics mean that most lineages die out. This makes it impossible to exclude many (even ten or more) generations of cryptic human-to-human spread between that hypothetical infected lab worker and the market. Even with advance warning, public health authorities in Western countries succeeded in tracing almost no cases back to the port of entry. I don't see why you'd expect the Chinese authorities to have succeeded at their much more difficult task.