3 ms·
I am very sceptical regarding the "complexity" benchmark used by the Atlas. I would like to illustrate what I mean with my home country, Germany. It does not m
by Archelaos 3y ago
I am very sceptical regarding the "complexity" benchmark used by the Atlas. I would like to illustrate what I mean with my home country, Germany.
It does not make sense to directly compare states of such different magnitutes as USA and Liechtenstein. Or given the highly integrated EU, it would make far more sense to compare the USA with the EU directly. Or regarding the complex economic situtation in Germany after the reunification, it would make more sense to compare Germany with USA+Mexico as a whole (West Germany to East Germany in 1990 in terms of population and GDP is aprox. USA to Mexico today -- of course, the time gap does not make it ideal, but it is playing with numbers anyway). Then there are countries whose export economy is dominated by just a few regions while other, typically small states are quite uniform.[1]
As far as I can see, the Atlas does not use the domestic economy at all for its complexity model. It would also be hard to compare objectively, because money might not be the best benchmark for this (for example, cheap health protection is typically better than expensive disease treatment). From anecdotal observations, I would argue that a lot of complexity growth in Germany in the last two decades occured in domestic services, such as child care and care for the elderly.
My final objection is that the measurement of complexity might depend on the exact division of sectors. The Atlas destinguishes between "motor vehicles for transporting goods" and "cars". But why stop there? Why not further subdivide "cars" into "microcars", "city cars", "small family car", "large family cars", "compact executive cars", "executive cars", "luxury cars", "sports cars", "leisure activity vehicle", ...? Only then can one see that the German car industry, for example, is much more diversified than many other car industries. But it would also automatically increase the overall complexity rating of Germany. In contrast, a further subdivision of sections in which Germany is weak (e.g. in tourism) would automatically lead to Germany losing complexity in comparison.
I think that only a holistic approach can lead to a reasonable evaluation of the economic situation of a country. The data provided by the Atlas may contribute to this, but the derivation of a "future dynamic" with a growth rate accuracy in the per mille range is just something like astrology in disguise.
[1] Here are, for example, the latest figures for Germany (preliminary for 2022): https://www.statistik-bw.de/HandelDienstl/Aussenhandel/AH-XP_exportquote.jsp https://www.statistik-bw.de/HandelDienstl/Aussenhandel/AH-XP... (in German). The data shows the still very large gap between West and East Germany: only the per capita export of Saxony (Sachsen) with 36.0% is above the German average (according to the "country sum" (Ländervergleich) in the table); Berlin is the worst of all with only 9.1%.
- IndySun 3y agoThank you for the thoughtful post. I must concur. Using sweeping economic averages will give you some country insight but barely represents the experiences of ordinary individuals living day to day. There are a million children living below the poverty line in the UK, one could not assume such from the numbers, so beautifully displayed.