3 ms·

This is probably the most commonly repeated myth about a potential westpac war, that the PRC wants to get TSMC and the US wants to preserve access to it, and th

This is probably the most commonly repeated myth about a potential westpac war, that the PRC wants to get TSMC and the US wants to preserve access to it, and that's why there's an incentive for war and why there's this constant escalation between the US and China. I don't know why it's so popular among people who don't know the subject matter, but it is. If westpac goes spicy, TSMC as it exists today is toast. The US will bomb the shit out of it if they can't keep it, and probably target any personnel they can't extract from the island; there was recently a big kerfuffle in TW domestic politics over someone in the US saying so publicly. The PRC wants chip independence, but everyone involved in that discussion understands that if the PRC waved a magic wand and gained complete control of TSMC, it doesn't give them ASML, it doesn't give them Zeiss, and a lot of that technology and process won't necessarily be usable until there are domestic equivalents to those technologies, by which time it would probably be out of date. Reverse engineering manufacturing methods from a seized sample is incredibly, unbelievably difficult in the best of times, let alone for atomic precision mirrors and high-throughput miniature factories operated under high vacuum. More importantly, the PRC just isn't willing to go to war over chip independence; their bar for war is a lot higher than that. The reason the PRC wants actual control of Taiwan in 2023 and could credibly go to war to achieve it is the same reason they wanted actual control of the island from the years 1949-2023 inclusive, the same reason that the Taiwan government wanted actual control of the PRC mainland from the years 1949-1990: because they view the territory as rightfully theirs, taken from them by people who they hated, and perceived that there was a decent chance they could get it by force. PRC control over Taiwan would be the final chapter in the civil war that quite literally birthed the PRC - it has immense political and national significance and has been essentially a major goal and organising principle of the PLA and the PRC as a nation ever since the KMT retreated to Taiwan. It is not about trying to get access to new GPUs.

futhey 3y ago
ASML has 5,000 direct and indirect suppliers, some of these have no alternatives or competitors, and ASML is just one of TSMC's core suppliers. Advancing the cutting edge in processor design is a byproduct of global peace and stability at this point.
dirtyid 3y ago
> civil war Yes this is overriding factor. > The US will bomb the shit out of it if they can't keep it IMO no, this is where the US will bomb TSMC analysis falls short. Including US Army War College analysis that suggest bombing TSMC that started drama. Bluntly TLDR is during wartime, TSMC is a card PRC has, not US. Incentive wise, it's in overwhelming US interest to keep TSMC tap open. If anything PRC has more incentive to crater TSMC to deny US access to significant % of high end chips that's already denied to PRC - US CHIPS reshoring only projected to capture like 10% of market share in next 10 years, and TBH TW will still retain many sole source semi supply chains that it's questionable if US high end fabs can produce without access to TW supply chain in short/medium term. Overall, US hi tech dependence and IP captures vast % of TW's semi value. Losing access to TW semi hurts US the most. Meanwhile, nothing in US strategic writing indicates attempt to completely rebuild indigenous semi supply chain, something only PRC is pursuing, because none of the CHIPS4 partner would be onboard if they knew US semi strategy is essentially to replace them long term. PRC semi independence is a technical problem, US semi independance is a political / security problem that could potentially undermine it's entire East Asian security posture. Short/medium term keeping TSMC around is in almost everyones interest. PRC wouldn't mind control but it will still be dependant on western supply chains, US wants continued access because vast segments of their strategic industries depend on it, TW wants fabs around because however war ends, they'll want to retain profitable strategic industry to keep talent and help with recovery. Hence talking point that TW would rig their own fabs to explode even more stupid. Which all points to leaving TSMC alone, if not using it as moderating force in conflict, or more likely something PRC can leverage against US. The reality is US has leverage over export controls / sanctions during peace time, PRC has leverage over cratering US access to TW (really east asian) semi supply chain during war. If indopac goes spicy, one of PRC's trump card is basically resetting most of US/western semi by decades, which pending on how PRC semi industrial policy fares, could actually close the semi gap. If conflict escalates to TSMC being gone, expect Samsung Semi and Tokyo Electron and most other western semi vendors in East Asia to be gone to. Expect CONUS fabs to stop operating unless US successfully reshores the entire semi supply chain on CONUS, which US partners will fight tooth and nail to stop. And even then there's escalation tier of homeland strikes in a few years that's going constrain US ability to intervene even more. While PRC wants TW for historic sake, preserving/destroying TW (and East Asia) semi decision matrix is going to play major factor in influencing scope of conflict. Which will likely boil down to US conceding TW to PRC without much of fight while PRC concedes to US strengthened security presence in East Asia maintained by unholy cooperation to keep semi spice flowing. Or total war that that covers mainland PRC and US partners in East Asia and CONUS.
HellDunkel 3y ago
This is nothing but propaganda. Machiavelli should be a good reminder to everyone putting logical reasoning aside and falling for this BS. The PRC cannot be allowed to have a monopoly on semiconductor production as they will use it to blackmail everbody else.
- defrost 3y ago
  Who's giving the PRC a monopoly FFS? Germany and Japan have convinced TSMC to start construction on factories in their countries, to ensure a supply of chips to the US and its allies.
  - HellDunkel 3y ago
    Nobody- they are about to forcefully take it. Those factories won‘t be ready tomorrow. What is your point?
    - defrost 3y ago
      How do you forcefully take clean room factories?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
WeylandYutani 3y ago
Amusingly Taiwan is why PRC and USSR fell out. When America evacuated the nationalists and placed their Pacific fleet in front of Taiwan Mao asked the Russians for help. He could defeat anyone on land but he didn't have a navy to get his troops across. The Russians politely declined because it wasn't worth the risk of WW3 for them.
- opo 3y ago
  >When America evacuated the nationalists I am not sure America provided much help on the Kuomintang's retreat to Taiwan. Is there a source for that? While Mao's rejection of peaceful coexistence with the West was one factor, there were several factors that drove the split between them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
- 5822130027 3y ago
  [dead]
hackandthink 3y ago
What is westpac? So TSMC in Taiwan is good for peace. China (PRC) (and USA) would loose access to semiconductors, the cost of war rises. Denying China (PRC) access to TSMC semiconductors is bad for peace. The cost of war decreases.
- HellDunkel 3y ago
  100%. I was not aware of any initiative to deny China access to TSMC products and services. Can you name some? NVidia is a different story as it is not owned by TSMC.
  - hackandthink 3y ago
    I do not follow this stuff, just a quick DDG search: "The Trump administration’s campaign against Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies included strict restrictions on semiconductor sales to the company; those sanctions halved TSMC’s exports to China to 10 percent of its global sales. The company is now under increasing pressure to police the orders it receives from other Chinese companies, and as the Biden administration tightens export controls, the Taiwanese company has canceled more Chinese contracts." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/united-states-china-semiconductor-standoff-a-supply-chain-under-stress/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/is... Qianer Liu, Ryan McMorrow, Nian Liu, and Kathrin Hille, “Chinese Chip Designers Slow Down Processors to Dodge US Sanctions,” Financial Times, November 6, 2022; “Chinese Chip Startup Shows Key Gap in Biden Export Curbs,” Bloomberg, October 21, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/one-chinese-chip-startup-shows-key-gap-in-biden-export-curbs?sref=E0nAM78N https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/one-chine....
- throw0101a 3y ago
  WESTern PACific: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_Readiness_Center_Western_Pacific https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_Readiness_Center_Western... * https://www.navair.navy.mil/frcwp/ https://www.navair.navy.mil/frcwp/
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
Thanks, great comment. I think a really important point you make is that many people (especially techies) tend to overestimate "rational" reasons for war, and they tend to forget we're all basically monkeys wearing pants. Just look at the war in Ukraine. Even if Russia completely "wins" the war, what do they "win"? A country where ~60-70% of the residents despise them? Some extra land (like Russia really has a problem with not enough land)? It's just a (very, very sad and tragic) dick-waving contest. A PRC attack on Taiwan would basically be the same thing.

futhey 3y ago

ASML has 5,000 direct and indirect suppliers, some of these have no alternatives or competitors, and ASML is just one of TSMC's core suppliers. Advancing the cutting edge in processor design is a byproduct of global peace and stability at this point.

dirtyid 3y ago

> civil war Yes this is overriding factor. > The US will bomb the shit out of it if they can't keep it IMO no, this is where the US will bomb TSMC analysis falls short. Including US Army War College analysis that suggest bombing TSMC that started drama. Bluntly TLDR is during wartime, TSMC is a card PRC has, not US. Incentive wise, it's in overwhelming US interest to keep TSMC tap open. If anything PRC has more incentive to crater TSMC to deny US access to significant % of high end chips that's already denied to PRC - US CHIPS reshoring only projected to capture like 10% of market share in next 10 years, and TBH TW will still retain many sole source semi supply chains that it's questionable if US high end fabs can produce without access to TW supply chain in short/medium term. Overall, US hi tech dependence and IP captures vast % of TW's semi value. Losing access to TW semi hurts US the most. Meanwhile, nothing in US strategic writing indicates attempt to completely rebuild indigenous semi supply chain, something only PRC is pursuing, because none of the CHIPS4 partner would be onboard if they knew US semi strategy is essentially to replace them long term. PRC semi independence is a technical problem, US semi independance is a political / security problem that could potentially undermine it's entire East Asian security posture. Short/medium term keeping TSMC around is in almost everyones interest. PRC wouldn't mind control but it will still be dependant on western supply chains, US wants continued access because vast segments of their strategic industries depend on it, TW wants fabs around because however war ends, they'll want to retain profitable strategic industry to keep talent and help with recovery. Hence talking point that TW would rig their own fabs to explode even more stupid. Which all points to leaving TSMC alone, if not using it as moderating force in conflict, or more likely something PRC can leverage against US. The reality is US has leverage over export controls / sanctions during peace time, PRC has leverage over cratering US access to TW (really east asian) semi supply chain during war. If indopac goes spicy, one of PRC's trump card is basically resetting most of US/western semi by decades, which pending on how PRC semi industrial policy fares, could actually close the semi gap. If conflict escalates to TSMC being gone, expect Samsung Semi and Tokyo Electron and most other western semi vendors in East Asia to be gone to. Expect CONUS fabs to stop operating unless US successfully reshores the entire semi supply chain on CONUS, which US partners will fight tooth and nail to stop. And even then there's escalation tier of homeland strikes in a few years that's going constrain US ability to intervene even more. While PRC wants TW for historic sake, preserving/destroying TW (and East Asia) semi decision matrix is going to play major factor in influencing scope of conflict. Which will likely boil down to US conceding TW to PRC without much of fight while PRC concedes to US strengthened security presence in East Asia maintained by unholy cooperation to keep semi spice flowing. Or total war that that covers mainland PRC and US partners in East Asia and CONUS.

HellDunkel 3y ago

This is nothing but propaganda. Machiavelli should be a good reminder to everyone putting logical reasoning aside and falling for this BS. The PRC cannot be allowed to have a monopoly on semiconductor production as they will use it to blackmail everbody else.

defrost 3y ago
Who's giving the PRC a monopoly FFS? Germany and Japan have convinced TSMC to start construction on factories in their countries, to ensure a supply of chips to the US and its allies.
- HellDunkel 3y ago
  Nobody- they are about to forcefully take it. Those factories won‘t be ready tomorrow. What is your point?
  - defrost 3y ago
    How do you forcefully take clean room factories?
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

WeylandYutani 3y ago

Amusingly Taiwan is why PRC and USSR fell out. When America evacuated the nationalists and placed their Pacific fleet in front of Taiwan Mao asked the Russians for help. He could defeat anyone on land but he didn't have a navy to get his troops across. The Russians politely declined because it wasn't worth the risk of WW3 for them.

opo 3y ago
>When America evacuated the nationalists I am not sure America provided much help on the Kuomintang's retreat to Taiwan. Is there a source for that? While Mao's rejection of peaceful coexistence with the West was one factor, there were several factors that drove the split between them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
5822130027 3y ago
[dead]

hackandthink 3y ago

What is westpac? So TSMC in Taiwan is good for peace. China (PRC) (and USA) would loose access to semiconductors, the cost of war rises. Denying China (PRC) access to TSMC semiconductors is bad for peace. The cost of war decreases.

HellDunkel 3y ago
100%. I was not aware of any initiative to deny China access to TSMC products and services. Can you name some? NVidia is a different story as it is not owned by TSMC.
- hackandthink 3y ago
  I do not follow this stuff, just a quick DDG search: "The Trump administration’s campaign against Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies included strict restrictions on semiconductor sales to the company; those sanctions halved TSMC’s exports to China to 10 percent of its global sales. The company is now under increasing pressure to police the orders it receives from other Chinese companies, and as the Biden administration tightens export controls, the Taiwanese company has canceled more Chinese contracts." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/united-states-china-semiconductor-standoff-a-supply-chain-under-stress/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/is... Qianer Liu, Ryan McMorrow, Nian Liu, and Kathrin Hille, “Chinese Chip Designers Slow Down Processors to Dodge US Sanctions,” Financial Times, November 6, 2022; “Chinese Chip Startup Shows Key Gap in Biden Export Curbs,” Bloomberg, October 21, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/one-chinese-chip-startup-shows-key-gap-in-biden-export-curbs?sref=E0nAM78N https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/one-chine....
throw0101a 3y ago
WESTern PACific: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_Readiness_Center_Western_Pacific https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_Readiness_Center_Western... * https://www.navair.navy.mil/frcwp/ https://www.navair.navy.mil/frcwp/

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

Thanks, great comment. I think a really important point you make is that many people (especially techies) tend to overestimate "rational" reasons for war, and they tend to forget we're all basically monkeys wearing pants. Just look at the war in Ukraine. Even if Russia completely "wins" the war, what do they "win"? A country where ~60-70% of the residents despise them? Some extra land (like Russia really has a problem with not enough land)? It's just a (very, very sad and tragic) dick-waving contest. A PRC attack on Taiwan would basically be the same thing.