4 ms·

Article says what comes next is '3C rise by end of century.' What happens next is tipping points are crossed and then you get exponential growth... https://ar

Article says what comes next is '3C rise by end of century.' What happens next is tipping points are crossed and then you get exponential growth... https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points....

toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_...
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
I recently watched a really good IMax movie, "Dinosaurs of Antarctica". I thought it was fascinating because I always had misunderstood the reasons for lush forests in Antarctica - I thought it was just because of plate tectonics (Antarctica was just in a more northern latitude before), but that's not the case in this instance - it really was a lush forest at the south pole. Which to me is even a bit more nuts because even though it was a lush forest it was still dark ~6 months of the year. Climate change is coming, and it's probably going to be coming faster than it ever has in Earth's history.
- Archelaos 3y ago
  > it was still dark ~6 months of the year. But note that this is only true for the part of Antarctica near the South Pole. As Antarctica is quite large, there are still parts that lie even today just north of the Arctic Circle.[1] Between the Antarctic Circle and the South Pole the length of the polar night gratually increases.[2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circle#/media/File:Antarctic_circle.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circle#/media/File:A... [2] Wikipedia has a nice graph showing the effect for each latitude: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daytime#/media/File:Hours_of_daylight_vs_latitude_vs_day_of_year_cmglee.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daytime#/media/File:Hours_of_d...
- rolldat777 3y ago
  Apologies for being pedantic: yes, change is coming, but certainly not faster than that brought on by a giant asteroid impact or major eruption. I only mention this as I feel exaggeration harms credibility.
  - JoshTko 3y ago
    If the change happens at a rate faster than most life on earth can adapt then the end effect is the same. Just will happen over a decade vs. over a month.
jfengel 3y ago
Even without tipping points, 3C is incredibly hazardous to human life. Large swathes of the planet, especially near the equator, go from "barely habitable" to "uninhabitable". Many millions will die; hundreds of millions (possibly billions) will be displaced. Even in the temperate zones, agricultural zones will shift tens or hundreds of miles toward the poles, where the growing seasons will be shorter due to daylight. Centuries of infrastructure will have to be rebuilt from scratch, if it can be done at all. The tipping points have the potential to be globe-spanning catastrophes. But even if we get lucky and none of them happen, there are disastrous effects that we are absolutely certain about.
landemva 3y ago
> exponential growth Or maybe we happen to be at tail end of Little Ice Age and gradual change will continue.
Cthulhu_ 3y ago
"What happens next" is mentioned a lot, but in my personal pessimistic barely-informed opinion we've already passed that. Pole ice has not grown back enough; pole ice reflects heat back into space, while naked sea will absorb it. Permafrost has been melting in the northern regions, making thousands of years of sequestered and frozen biomass defrost and decompose, releasing huge amounts of methane. Sea flow (whatever it was called) that pulls warm water north and cold water south, balancing out temperatures, is slowing down because of heating up + desalinization (from melting glaciers). When I read about it years ago, it said that that's what causes an ice age (as in, ice sheets going south).

toomuchtodo 3y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_...

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

I recently watched a really good IMax movie, "Dinosaurs of Antarctica". I thought it was fascinating because I always had misunderstood the reasons for lush forests in Antarctica - I thought it was just because of plate tectonics (Antarctica was just in a more northern latitude before), but that's not the case in this instance - it really was a lush forest at the south pole. Which to me is even a bit more nuts because even though it was a lush forest it was still dark ~6 months of the year. Climate change is coming, and it's probably going to be coming faster than it ever has in Earth's history.

Archelaos 3y ago
> it was still dark ~6 months of the year. But note that this is only true for the part of Antarctica near the South Pole. As Antarctica is quite large, there are still parts that lie even today just north of the Arctic Circle.[1] Between the Antarctic Circle and the South Pole the length of the polar night gratually increases.[2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circle#/media/File:Antarctic_circle.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circle#/media/File:A... [2] Wikipedia has a nice graph showing the effect for each latitude: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daytime#/media/File:Hours_of_daylight_vs_latitude_vs_day_of_year_cmglee.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daytime#/media/File:Hours_of_d...
rolldat777 3y ago
Apologies for being pedantic: yes, change is coming, but certainly not faster than that brought on by a giant asteroid impact or major eruption. I only mention this as I feel exaggeration harms credibility.
- JoshTko 3y ago
  If the change happens at a rate faster than most life on earth can adapt then the end effect is the same. Just will happen over a decade vs. over a month.

jfengel 3y ago

Even without tipping points, 3C is incredibly hazardous to human life. Large swathes of the planet, especially near the equator, go from "barely habitable" to "uninhabitable". Many millions will die; hundreds of millions (possibly billions) will be displaced. Even in the temperate zones, agricultural zones will shift tens or hundreds of miles toward the poles, where the growing seasons will be shorter due to daylight. Centuries of infrastructure will have to be rebuilt from scratch, if it can be done at all. The tipping points have the potential to be globe-spanning catastrophes. But even if we get lucky and none of them happen, there are disastrous effects that we are absolutely certain about.

landemva 3y ago

> exponential growth Or maybe we happen to be at tail end of Little Ice Age and gradual change will continue.

Cthulhu_ 3y ago

"What happens next" is mentioned a lot, but in my personal pessimistic barely-informed opinion we've already passed that. Pole ice has not grown back enough; pole ice reflects heat back into space, while naked sea will absorb it. Permafrost has been melting in the northern regions, making thousands of years of sequestered and frozen biomass defrost and decompose, releasing huge amounts of methane. Sea flow (whatever it was called) that pulls warm water north and cold water south, balancing out temperatures, is slowing down because of heating up + desalinization (from melting glaciers). When I read about it years ago, it said that that's what causes an ice age (as in, ice sheets going south).