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> Imagine buses routed dynamically, and sized perfectly to match demand. We don't need self-driving to do this, and in fact many localities have already tried

> Imagine buses routed dynamically, and sized perfectly to match demand. We don't need self-driving to do this, and in fact many localities have already tried this with human drivers, and it's been an abject failure. Dynamic-dispatch public transit has been tried! The results have been low usage (because it turns out the predictability of a timetable and consistent route is a feature, and not a bug!), with high wait times and long trip times. Heck, the major ride hailing companies have done pilots on this front (ride hails as last-mile supplements to fixed-route public transport) and it's been a pretty thorough failure there as well. In urban planning circles there's the term "gadgetbahn" to derisively describe high-tech, flashy transit projects using unproven tech that ends up being far worse than normal proven technologies. Dynamic-routed public transit is like that, but with even less "gadget".

triceratops 3y ago
> in fact many localities have already tried this with human drivers, > and it's been an abject failure. For the product being delivered (low speed, low latency, available only in specific areas), public transit is criminally expensive. I'm not surprised people prefer driving in suburban areas. If it was 1/10th price, or free, it becomes a lot more attractive. Free is impossible if you have to pay salaries to human drivers. Driverless vehicles don't have to be 4-seater cars. They can be much smaller, like the Smart Car, or a single person enclosed three-wheeler.
- potatolicious 3y ago
  > "For the product being delivered (low speed, low latency, available only in specific areas), public transit is criminally expensive." This is true - the problem is that dynamic-dispatch transit is even more expensive on a per-passenger or per-ride basis, and both speed and latency are actually worse than status quo public transit. It'd be one thing if the result of these projects have been "this is great but expensive", but the result overwhelmingly has been worse than fixed-route bus transit across every major metric. Autonomous cars can improve the cost problem, but can't dramatically change the calculus on speed and latency. Likewise, autonomous cars can also solve the cost problem for buses, and better!
  - triceratops 3y ago
    > the problem is that dynamic-dispatch transit is even more expensive on a per-passenger or per-ride basis Even if you remove the human driver and the need for a 3-ton piece of metal powered by an ICE? > both speed and latency are actually worse than status quo public transit All the ride-hailing apps seem to appear to disprove this. They're more expensive than public transit for this very reason. > Likewise, autonomous cars can also solve the cost problem for buses, and better! Hear hear!

triceratops 3y ago

> in fact many localities have already tried this with human drivers, > and it's been an abject failure. For the product being delivered (low speed, low latency, available only in specific areas), public transit is criminally expensive. I'm not surprised people prefer driving in suburban areas. If it was 1/10th price, or free, it becomes a lot more attractive. Free is impossible if you have to pay salaries to human drivers. Driverless vehicles don't have to be 4-seater cars. They can be much smaller, like the Smart Car, or a single person enclosed three-wheeler.

potatolicious 3y ago
> "For the product being delivered (low speed, low latency, available only in specific areas), public transit is criminally expensive." This is true - the problem is that dynamic-dispatch transit is even more expensive on a per-passenger or per-ride basis, and both speed and latency are actually worse than status quo public transit. It'd be one thing if the result of these projects have been "this is great but expensive", but the result overwhelmingly has been worse than fixed-route bus transit across every major metric. Autonomous cars can improve the cost problem, but can't dramatically change the calculus on speed and latency. Likewise, autonomous cars can also solve the cost problem for buses, and better!
- triceratops 3y ago
  > the problem is that dynamic-dispatch transit is even more expensive on a per-passenger or per-ride basis Even if you remove the human driver and the need for a 3-ton piece of metal powered by an ICE? > both speed and latency are actually worse than status quo public transit All the ride-hailing apps seem to appear to disprove this. They're more expensive than public transit for this very reason. > Likewise, autonomous cars can also solve the cost problem for buses, and better! Hear hear!