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This video[1] was posted about 6 years ago but I think were starting to see the effects of the bubble they were talking about. In the video they said most new a

This video[1] was posted about 6 years ago but I think were starting to see the effects of the bubble they were talking about. In the video they said most new apartments were bought as investments as real estate is seen as one of the only "safe" investments in China. It would be one thing if most of these buildings were occupied by residents and only a percentage was investment properties but it sounds like there were many buildings in these new cities where practically every unit was an "investment property". The problem is these "investment properties" stop being investments when everyone has one. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84

toomuchtodo 3y ago
When making a trade, being early is the same as being wrong [1]. You are right, the writing has been on the wall that eventually, the real estate pyramid scheme Chinese wealth is built on was going to crumble (the zeitgeist was that real estate was the path to wealth vs capital markets or other asset classes, and it was until it wasn't). We are only recently within sight of the event horizon, and there are no greater fools [2] left. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27673627 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27673627 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory (ADVchina is a great channel btw, highly recommend the content if you're a remote scholar of Chinese macro)