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I think it's pretty clear by this point that it's like an extreme slow motion train crash. In a free economy China would probably have had a proper crash and p
by audunw 3y ago
I think it's pretty clear by this point that it's like an extreme slow motion train crash.
In a free economy China would probably have had a proper crash and perhaps even a rebound by now. But China is doing everything that can to prevent a crash that can be blamed on the government, but the problems are so fundamental that they're just postponing a full crash - one that will probably end up being much worse - instead of fixing the root problems.
A decade ago you could say that the people predicting China's economic crash didn't have anything concrete to support their arguments. Things seemed to be going well. Now there's many real tangible signs of deep economic problems. Youth unemployment, buildings not being finished, banks failing, .. It's probably even more telling that China's government is stopping reporting of relevant data. Not that they were super reliable to begin with.
China probably won't crash in the way USA's economy crash. But that's kind of the problem. A crash is essentially a rapid correction of the economy. China won't allow that. Which puts them on the path of serious long term stagnation.