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Yes. I know the history; the US is absolutely ruthless against friend and foe in keeping its hegemony. And it has a long history of having its natsec apparatus
by throwaway4good 3y ago
Yes. I know the history; the US is absolutely ruthless against friend and foe in keeping its hegemony. And it has a long history of having its natsec apparatus integrated into its largest corporations.
As for China "catching up":
1. China is indeed far far behind the US-controlled West if the criteria is purely Chinese designed and manufactured semiconductors using purely Chinese designed and manufactured equipment.
2. The extreme nature of the US semiconductor blockade has surprised even me (and I was kinda expecting the worst).
However:
3. China is developing along a path already throtten by Western companies; far easier than developing on the leading edge.
4. The Chinese market (plus Russia, Iran whoever is on the US shit list) is massive. It can sponsor a lot of technological development.
In the end there is no magic in tech.
Whatever company is at the top seemingly untouchable is there because of a "natural monopoly" created by massive fixed cost and little marginal cost. History is full of tech companies that were at one point dominant but no longer is: Digital, Microsoft, Intel, Google ...
The companies that are used as chokeholds today: NVDIA, ASML, TSMC will at one point join that list. In fact using them as chokeholds probably makes it happen faster.
- dragonelite 3y agoTSMC 3~5nm is quiet dependent on Apple, Nvidia, AMD products also being able to reach Chinese consumers. Or else the economic off scale that makes using EUV plausible breaks down. With Europe going down the drain and American consumer having a tougher time to make ends meet. Losing the Chinese consumers might as well break TSMC.
- mensetmanusman 3y agoThat’s a really interesting point, it would be fascinating if China decided to block any products that used TSMC 4nm nodes and below in response.