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1. 13K is technically the point where a country goes from middle to high income. 2. The Chinese economy is still growing more than most countries. 3. The US i

1. 13K is technically the point where a country goes from middle to high income. 2. The Chinese economy is still growing more than most countries. 3. The US is clearly engaged in zero/negative sum economic warfare against China at the moment - for example read this article and the quoted views by admistration officials therein: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-chips-us-china.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-ch... ‘An Act of War’: Inside America’s Silicon Blockade Against China

throwaway2037 3y ago
The US is clearly engaged in zero/negative sum economic warfare against China I suggest that you read the history of post war trade relations between US and Japan. It was a bumpy ride! One big difference: General adherence to IP laws (China does whatever they want), plus both are democracies. Related: Do you think China can catch-up to developed world in fab tech? I do not. They are hopelessly behind.
- throwawayqqq11 3y ago
  ... ehem, taiwan.
  - throwaway2037 3y ago
    Invasion or naval blockade? Your choice. Sure, for a few days, before multiple US carriers float into these waters. It won't last a month if it happens. You would have every high developed country in the world ready to support Taiwan in the event of an "unfortunate incident" with Mainland China. Plenty of people in the US are "itching" for a small military confrontation with M/C. If you think the support for Ukraine has been strong, it will be multiple times stronger for Taiwan, if only for economic (TSMC) reasons.
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  Yes. I know the history; the US is absolutely ruthless against friend and foe in keeping its hegemony. And it has a long history of having its natsec apparatus integrated into its largest corporations. As for China "catching up": 1. China is indeed far far behind the US-controlled West if the criteria is purely Chinese designed and manufactured semiconductors using purely Chinese designed and manufactured equipment. 2. The extreme nature of the US semiconductor blockade has surprised even me (and I was kinda expecting the worst). However: 3. China is developing along a path already throtten by Western companies; far easier than developing on the leading edge. 4. The Chinese market (plus Russia, Iran whoever is on the US shit list) is massive. It can sponsor a lot of technological development. In the end there is no magic in tech. Whatever company is at the top seemingly untouchable is there because of a "natural monopoly" created by massive fixed cost and little marginal cost. History is full of tech companies that were at one point dominant but no longer is: Digital, Microsoft, Intel, Google ... The companies that are used as chokeholds today: NVDIA, ASML, TSMC will at one point join that list. In fact using them as chokeholds probably makes it happen faster.
  - dragonelite 3y ago
    TSMC 3~5nm is quiet dependent on Apple, Nvidia, AMD products also being able to reach Chinese consumers. Or else the economic off scale that makes using EUV plausible breaks down. With Europe going down the drain and American consumer having a tougher time to make ends meet. Losing the Chinese consumers might as well break TSMC.
    - mensetmanusman 3y ago
      That’s a really interesting point, it would be fascinating if China decided to block any products that used TSMC 4nm nodes and below in response.

throwaway2037 3y ago

The US is clearly engaged in zero/negative sum economic warfare against China I suggest that you read the history of post war trade relations between US and Japan. It was a bumpy ride! One big difference: General adherence to IP laws (China does whatever they want), plus both are democracies. Related: Do you think China can catch-up to developed world in fab tech? I do not. They are hopelessly behind.

throwawayqqq11 3y ago
... ehem, taiwan.
- throwaway2037 3y ago
  Invasion or naval blockade? Your choice. Sure, for a few days, before multiple US carriers float into these waters. It won't last a month if it happens. You would have every high developed country in the world ready to support Taiwan in the event of an "unfortunate incident" with Mainland China. Plenty of people in the US are "itching" for a small military confrontation with M/C. If you think the support for Ukraine has been strong, it will be multiple times stronger for Taiwan, if only for economic (TSMC) reasons.
throwaway4good 3y ago
Yes. I know the history; the US is absolutely ruthless against friend and foe in keeping its hegemony. And it has a long history of having its natsec apparatus integrated into its largest corporations. As for China "catching up": 1. China is indeed far far behind the US-controlled West if the criteria is purely Chinese designed and manufactured semiconductors using purely Chinese designed and manufactured equipment. 2. The extreme nature of the US semiconductor blockade has surprised even me (and I was kinda expecting the worst). However: 3. China is developing along a path already throtten by Western companies; far easier than developing on the leading edge. 4. The Chinese market (plus Russia, Iran whoever is on the US shit list) is massive. It can sponsor a lot of technological development. In the end there is no magic in tech. Whatever company is at the top seemingly untouchable is there because of a "natural monopoly" created by massive fixed cost and little marginal cost. History is full of tech companies that were at one point dominant but no longer is: Digital, Microsoft, Intel, Google ... The companies that are used as chokeholds today: NVDIA, ASML, TSMC will at one point join that list. In fact using them as chokeholds probably makes it happen faster.
- dragonelite 3y ago
  TSMC 3~5nm is quiet dependent on Apple, Nvidia, AMD products also being able to reach Chinese consumers. Or else the economic off scale that makes using EUV plausible breaks down. With Europe going down the drain and American consumer having a tougher time to make ends meet. Losing the Chinese consumers might as well break TSMC.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    That’s a really interesting point, it would be fascinating if China decided to block any products that used TSMC 4nm nodes and below in response.