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I heard someone on the radio recently speculate that due to the political climate China could prefer and produce a Japanese style decades long unwinding of econ
by jimmySixDOF 3y ago
I heard someone on the radio recently speculate that due to the political climate China could prefer and produce a Japanese style decades long unwinding of economic bubbles vs a western style resolution through crisis. Of interest also was the level of Municipal debt and it's stratification between provincial higher default risks and a handful of real high flyers.
- zpeti 3y agoExcept they will be doing this at a much lower economic situation than Japan. Japan still got to being a first world country, but then busted. China won’t get there.
- throwaway2037 3y agoWhy was this downvoted? There is plenty of truth here.
- The_Colonel 3y agoJapanese demographics were also much more stable (even if low in general). China will have a much more dramatic demographic shift. The fertility rate was ~6 in 1970, ~2.8 in 1980 ... 1.09 in 2022. These strong generations will continue retiring, but there will be few young workers to replace them.
- bohadi 3y agoDon't know where you're from or your experience but you maybe want to update your priors on the meaning term first world, which peaked in usage roughly 1948... https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=first+world&year_start=1800&year_end=2019&corpus=en-2019&smoothing=3 https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=first+world&ye... The mean and median living some places might surprise you. For example visit HongKong, Singapore, Taipei, Tokyo, or a mainland city this millenium. Or dont'! First world, it mostly conjures automobile culture and car infrastructure which is nothing special these days but check the world's largest car makers... you would guess Germany Japan or even the USA recently no?