3 ms·

With respect, this is not a theory as much as it is basic observation. Even this old data is striking: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https

With respect, this is not a theory as much as it is basic observation. Even this old data is striking: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy Batteries are completely on a similar curve, continuously improving at an exponential rate, and as they get scaled up to TWh/year production there is a chance of acceleration of this trend. There is a proliferation of new chemistry and tech in all parts of the battery. We are just at the very beginning.

brutusborn 3y ago
I’ll believe they are on a similar curve when I see a similar curve using data from utility scales. Of course stuff like Lithium batteries are accelerating, but these aren’t economical for utility scale batteries yet. There’s a good chance they will never be.
- epistasis 3y ago
  Check out any recent grid addiction assessment, such as this one: "US will see more new battery capacity than natural gas generation in 2023" https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new-battery-capacity-than-natural-gas-generation-in-2023/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new...
  - brutusborn 3y ago
    I have been following the industry from a distance; construction is accelerating but the prices are still well beyond economical for the scale required for grid stability. And projects are still relatively tiny (<10 GW). Based on the latest projects such as this one in Australia [0], building a grid-scale system will result in energy prices increasing by many multiples. Of course it will get cheaper, but I don't see it being cheap enough that it won't have massive impact on costs (I hope I'm wrong btw). [0] https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150mw-big-battery-at-hazelwood/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150m...

brutusborn 3y ago

I’ll believe they are on a similar curve when I see a similar curve using data from utility scales. Of course stuff like Lithium batteries are accelerating, but these aren’t economical for utility scale batteries yet. There’s a good chance they will never be.

epistasis 3y ago
Check out any recent grid addiction assessment, such as this one: "US will see more new battery capacity than natural gas generation in 2023" https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new-battery-capacity-than-natural-gas-generation-in-2023/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new...
- brutusborn 3y ago
  I have been following the industry from a distance; construction is accelerating but the prices are still well beyond economical for the scale required for grid stability. And projects are still relatively tiny (<10 GW). Based on the latest projects such as this one in Australia [0], building a grid-scale system will result in energy prices increasing by many multiples. Of course it will get cheaper, but I don't see it being cheap enough that it won't have massive impact on costs (I hope I'm wrong btw). [0] https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150mw-big-battery-at-hazelwood/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150m...