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> and we turned up on the scene about as early as we could. > So we are probably just one of the first. Those two sentences don't really mix. We have evidence

by bmitc 3y ago

> and we turned up on the scene about as early as we could. > So we are probably just one of the first. Those two sentences don't really mix. We have evidence that points to life forming basically immediately once the conditions are right. That means that for us to be the first, nowhere else in the galaxy and universe could have had the conditions. That just seems incredibly unlikely. Even in our own Solar System, other bodies like Mars had the conditions for life before Earth did.

midoridensha 3y ago
On top of that, Earth itself had the potential for intelligent life long before humans came around. But instead of evolving some overgrown monkeys, it evolved some overgrown birds who were too selfish and shortsighted to work together and develop a space program and watch out for large asteroids. They were mostly wiped out because of this, and it took 65 million years for another selfish and shortsighted group of animals to evolve and become dominant. Unlike the last ones, they developed a space program, but it's not really enough to handle threatening asteroids yet, but they're busy destroying themselves and their environment in other ways, so it may be moot. It might take Earth 3 tries to finally evolve a sentient species that becomes a spacefaring civilization.
- WJW 3y ago
  With you until the last sentence. Why would the "third try" not just be dinosaurs again? Same for the 4th, 5th an subsequent "attempts". The fact that the second try got further than the first does not mean that the 3rd will get further than the second. In fact, given that most of the easily accessible coal and oil deposits will have been used up it might even be much more difficult for a subsequent species to get as far as humanity has. (Although that might be balanced a bit by lots of the metal ore being pre-mined and near the surface)
  - jagged-chisel 3y ago
    > ... most of the easily accessible coal and oil deposits will have been used up . There'll be plenty of time for nature to compact and bury much of the biomass from the previous sentience attempts.
    - WJW 3y ago
      Depends. Most of the current coal deposits were from before fungi and bacteria evolved the ability to digest lignins and similar compounds. Now that they can do that, no more (or at least much less) coal deposits are being created.
- zeckalpha 3y ago
  Some ongoing research into this timeline: https://www.science.org/content/article/some-dinos-may-have-been-brainy-modern-primates-controversial-study-argues https://www.science.org/content/article/some-dinos-may-have-...
  - bmitc 3y ago
    Orcas very likely have human adjacent intelligence and evolved earlier than humans. They arrived several to tens of million years before humans, as far as I can tell. Orcas are simply constrained by their environment as far as technological development goes.
pfdietz 3y ago
Or it means that the conditions are not persistent -- life originates in a stellar system either immediately, or not at all.
dejawu 3y ago
> We have evidence that points to life forming basically immediately once the conditions are right. What's the evidence for this? Not asking rhetorically, I'm curious and want to read more.
- bmitc 3y ago
  I have picked it up from a variety of resources. One is the Origins of Life course on Complexity Explorer: https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses/155-origins-of-life-summer-2022 https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses/155-origins-of-li... Basically, as my understanding goes, life is effectively as old as the Earth is. As soon as it cooled down after forming and had liquid oceans, life started, which happened just a few hundred million years after Earth formed. There is the book Every Life is on Fire as well, describing how life began to dissipate heat in the environment of molecules in water being heated. That seems to imply life will quickly start in such conditions. (Note: I don't strongly recommend the book, as it has a lot of religious stuff in it and honestly isn't that well written, and I have mainly learned about the author's theory elsewhere.)

by bmitc 3y ago

midoridensha 3y ago

On top of that, Earth itself had the potential for intelligent life long before humans came around. But instead of evolving some overgrown monkeys, it evolved some overgrown birds who were too selfish and shortsighted to work together and develop a space program and watch out for large asteroids. They were mostly wiped out because of this, and it took 65 million years for another selfish and shortsighted group of animals to evolve and become dominant. Unlike the last ones, they developed a space program, but it's not really enough to handle threatening asteroids yet, but they're busy destroying themselves and their environment in other ways, so it may be moot. It might take Earth 3 tries to finally evolve a sentient species that becomes a spacefaring civilization.

WJW 3y ago
With you until the last sentence. Why would the "third try" not just be dinosaurs again? Same for the 4th, 5th an subsequent "attempts". The fact that the second try got further than the first does not mean that the 3rd will get further than the second. In fact, given that most of the easily accessible coal and oil deposits will have been used up it might even be much more difficult for a subsequent species to get as far as humanity has. (Although that might be balanced a bit by lots of the metal ore being pre-mined and near the surface)
- jagged-chisel 3y ago
  > ... most of the easily accessible coal and oil deposits will have been used up . There'll be plenty of time for nature to compact and bury much of the biomass from the previous sentience attempts.
  - WJW 3y ago
    Depends. Most of the current coal deposits were from before fungi and bacteria evolved the ability to digest lignins and similar compounds. Now that they can do that, no more (or at least much less) coal deposits are being created.
zeckalpha 3y ago
Some ongoing research into this timeline: https://www.science.org/content/article/some-dinos-may-have-been-brainy-modern-primates-controversial-study-argues https://www.science.org/content/article/some-dinos-may-have-...
- bmitc 3y ago
  Orcas very likely have human adjacent intelligence and evolved earlier than humans. They arrived several to tens of million years before humans, as far as I can tell. Orcas are simply constrained by their environment as far as technological development goes.

pfdietz 3y ago

Or it means that the conditions are not persistent -- life originates in a stellar system either immediately, or not at all.

dejawu 3y ago

> We have evidence that points to life forming basically immediately once the conditions are right. What's the evidence for this? Not asking rhetorically, I'm curious and want to read more.

bmitc 3y ago
I have picked it up from a variety of resources. One is the Origins of Life course on Complexity Explorer: https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses/155-origins-of-life-summer-2022 https://www.complexityexplorer.org/courses/155-origins-of-li... Basically, as my understanding goes, life is effectively as old as the Earth is. As soon as it cooled down after forming and had liquid oceans, life started, which happened just a few hundred million years after Earth formed. There is the book Every Life is on Fire as well, describing how life began to dissipate heat in the environment of molecules in water being heated. That seems to imply life will quickly start in such conditions. (Note: I don't strongly recommend the book, as it has a lot of religious stuff in it and honestly isn't that well written, and I have mainly learned about the author's theory elsewhere.)