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I think this theory has merit, but I don't think you can necessarily say that battery tech is on a similar tech curve to renewables. We simply haven't built man

I think this theory has merit, but I don't think you can necessarily say that battery tech is on a similar tech curve to renewables. We simply haven't built many utility scale batteries so it's unclear how much improvements can be made. Add to that that batteries have been around for centuries, but renewables are decades old, so it makes sense that they are improving in cost so quickly: they are a newer tech.

epistasis 3y ago
With respect, this is not a theory as much as it is basic observation. Even this old data is striking: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy Batteries are completely on a similar curve, continuously improving at an exponential rate, and as they get scaled up to TWh/year production there is a chance of acceleration of this trend. There is a proliferation of new chemistry and tech in all parts of the battery. We are just at the very beginning.
- brutusborn 3y ago
  I’ll believe they are on a similar curve when I see a similar curve using data from utility scales. Of course stuff like Lithium batteries are accelerating, but these aren’t economical for utility scale batteries yet. There’s a good chance they will never be.
  - epistasis 3y ago
    Check out any recent grid addiction assessment, such as this one: "US will see more new battery capacity than natural gas generation in 2023" https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new-battery-capacity-than-natural-gas-generation-in-2023/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new...
    - brutusborn 3y ago
      I have been following the industry from a distance; construction is accelerating but the prices are still well beyond economical for the scale required for grid stability. And projects are still relatively tiny (<10 GW). Based on the latest projects such as this one in Australia [0], building a grid-scale system will result in energy prices increasing by many multiples. Of course it will get cheaper, but I don't see it being cheap enough that it won't have massive impact on costs (I hope I'm wrong btw). [0] https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150mw-big-battery-at-hazelwood/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150m...

epistasis 3y ago

With respect, this is not a theory as much as it is basic observation. Even this old data is striking: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy Batteries are completely on a similar curve, continuously improving at an exponential rate, and as they get scaled up to TWh/year production there is a chance of acceleration of this trend. There is a proliferation of new chemistry and tech in all parts of the battery. We are just at the very beginning.

brutusborn 3y ago
I’ll believe they are on a similar curve when I see a similar curve using data from utility scales. Of course stuff like Lithium batteries are accelerating, but these aren’t economical for utility scale batteries yet. There’s a good chance they will never be.
- epistasis 3y ago
  Check out any recent grid addiction assessment, such as this one: "US will see more new battery capacity than natural gas generation in 2023" https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new-battery-capacity-than-natural-gas-generation-in-2023/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/us-will-see-more-new...
  - brutusborn 3y ago
    I have been following the industry from a distance; construction is accelerating but the prices are still well beyond economical for the scale required for grid stability. And projects are still relatively tiny (<10 GW). Based on the latest projects such as this one in Australia [0], building a grid-scale system will result in energy prices increasing by many multiples. Of course it will get cheaper, but I don't see it being cheap enough that it won't have massive impact on costs (I hope I'm wrong btw). [0] https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150mw-big-battery-at-hazelwood/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/engie-and-macquarie-to-fund-150m...