So... it appears in the quick scan of the article that the $1/Kg is entirely dependent on what it is planned that solar will cost in about 5-7 years. First off

So... it appears in the quick scan of the article that the $1/Kg is entirely dependent on what it is planned that solar will cost in about 5-7 years. First off I'd like to credit the author for 1) recognizing the steady past improvement in solar costs 2) using the concept of LCOE 3) accepting that solar will improve for at least 10 years 4) targeting a future cost target of solar These are things the hydrogen folks often pretend isn't going to happen. But anyway, the theory being that as soon as hydrogen is cheaper than petrol by a sufficient margin a massive economic shift will occur. I'm assuming he means switches to FCEVs (not going to happen) or synthfuels for the ICEs. But... batteries and EV tech are also improving on a very aggressive curve. Currently it is my belief that state of the art EV drivetrain tech has dropped under ICE costs. This is already the current state of the market, and there is likely a large amount of further cost reduction in EV drivetrains forthcoming in the next 10-20 years that will make the ICE drivetrain functionally obsolete in at least 70% of applications and perhaps 95%. So even if a synthfuel chain based on H2 production from solar appears that is cheaper than current oil extraction in about 10 years, the fact is that, while there will be a large installed base to milk for another 10-20 years, EVs are going to eat the terrestrial vehicle drivetrain market. I will say it would still be an enormous boon for the used equipment out there, as well as aviation. So I wish them the best. Also, grid power storage (short and long term). And we'll still have the issue that oil extraction might still be cheaper for methane -> H2, and it sneaks into the "green" H2 market, which is a danger, but if solar is really so cheap in 7-10 years as predicted in this article, it might be economically infeasible to do grey/blue/purple/rainbow hydrogen from methane, which would be a good thing. Did I miss something?