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> We want the cheapest possible power. What adds cost to solar power? Moving it from the array to another place.... Hydrogen distribution costs are also extreme

> We want the cheapest possible power. What adds cost to solar power? Moving it from the array to another place.... Hydrogen distribution costs are also extremely high, but because Terraform is only using hydrogen as an immediate precursor we’re going to ignore distribution costs here.... by ~2040 ... nearly all grid electricity will be downstream of solar, providing energy to customers through parallel distribution networks of electricity, oil, and gas. He/she/it has created an inscrutably mixed-up paper sack of ideas to promote a never-defined end. Run this by a half-talented human editor and it might be possible to see what this 'visionary' is all about.

numbers_guy 3y ago
The vision is to create a synthetic fuel that is cost competitive with fossil fuels, (without any subsidies/carbon taxes if I'm reading that right).
- brutusborn 3y ago
  Methane can be the feedstock for so many fuels and chemicals so it has a huge potential. I think a lot of the skepticism of this is due to skeptics associating methane with fossil fuels and having an emotional reaction.
LorenPechtel 3y ago
No--he is quite correctly dumping all those other costs because the intent is to neither store nor ship the hydrogen, but rather directly use it to make methane. That's much easier to work with (it's also commonly referred to as "natural gas".) I don't like the pictures, though--there would not be a solar plant next to a water cracker next to a methane maker, but rather smaller scale components stacked together. The shorter the distance you ship it the cheaper--you put your panel right on top of the other equipment.
- bertil 3y ago
  I was curious how much fossil fuel lobbyists are pushing hydrogen (they keep assuming electricity is free but somehow not competitive with hydrogen). It’s increasingly starting to look like they anticipate having plants synthesize methane in remote areas (maybe near methane wells) and possibly have higher productivity from those setups than people would anticipate if they looked closely at the hydrolysis performance.
  - defrost 3y ago
    Hydrogen is also being looked at hard by those who mine 800 million tonnes per annum of iron ore to meet the world steel demand. That's a lot of annual fuel use. See (for example): https://fortescue.com/what-we-do/green-energy-research/green-hydrogen https://fortescue.com/what-we-do/green-energy-research/green... where you're looking at serious physical engineers dealing with moving Mt Fuji magnitude problems of scale with billions in the budget. Contrary wise, see also: https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2021/Rio-Tinto-Teams-Up-with-Caterpillar-for-Zero-Emissions-Autonomous-Trucks https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2021/Rio-Tinto-Teams-... https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2022/Rio-Tinto-purchases-first-battery-electric-trains-for-the-Pilbara https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2022/Rio-Tinto-purcha... these being some of the largest, longest, heaviest trains globally.
    - bertil 3y ago
      I do not doubt that those trains will be powered by electricity (solar or wind: no one will object to either near a mine or along tracks). Similarly, if they need hydrogen as a reduction agent, they will produce it locally — i.e., not ask anyone trying to capture CO2 in the air or buy from it far away. No one is moving smelting facilities, so they’ll setup solar panels and wind farms around those. That’s why the argument of making those far away, in place known for nothing but sand and oil fields always felt disingenuous.
      - defrost 3y ago
        > no one will object to either near a mine or along tracks > in place known for nothing but sand and oil fields Errr, just as a reality check, almost all mines impact people in some form or another, often indigenous people who never adopted advanced western lifestyles that they are directly impacted by with mines, pipelines, climate effects, etc. FWiW I'm making that statement as someone with decades as an exploration geophysicist, backend developer of https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met... and someone who has negotiated on environmental impact statements with traditional landowners. In the US the proposed $64 billion half century supply Resolution Copper mine will impact people: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ceraweek-rio-tinto-keeps-working-build-indigenous-support-resolution-mine-2023-03-07 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ceraweek-rio-tin... despite being somewhere that many on HN would describe as "empty", "barren", "uninhabited", etc. Rio Tinto has stretched it's credibility with traditional owners in recent years: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/03/rio-tintos-alleged-underpayment-of-traditional-owners-of-wa-mine-area-sparks-calls-for-widespread-review https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/03/rio-t... https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/24/a-year-on-from-the-juukan-gorge-destruction-aboriginal-sacred-sites-remain-unprotected https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/24/a-yea...

numbers_guy 3y ago

The vision is to create a synthetic fuel that is cost competitive with fossil fuels, (without any subsidies/carbon taxes if I'm reading that right).

brutusborn 3y ago
Methane can be the feedstock for so many fuels and chemicals so it has a huge potential. I think a lot of the skepticism of this is due to skeptics associating methane with fossil fuels and having an emotional reaction.

LorenPechtel 3y ago

No--he is quite correctly dumping all those other costs because the intent is to neither store nor ship the hydrogen, but rather directly use it to make methane. That's much easier to work with (it's also commonly referred to as "natural gas".) I don't like the pictures, though--there would not be a solar plant next to a water cracker next to a methane maker, but rather smaller scale components stacked together. The shorter the distance you ship it the cheaper--you put your panel right on top of the other equipment.

bertil 3y ago
I was curious how much fossil fuel lobbyists are pushing hydrogen (they keep assuming electricity is free but somehow not competitive with hydrogen). It’s increasingly starting to look like they anticipate having plants synthesize methane in remote areas (maybe near methane wells) and possibly have higher productivity from those setups than people would anticipate if they looked closely at the hydrolysis performance.
- defrost 3y ago
  Hydrogen is also being looked at hard by those who mine 800 million tonnes per annum of iron ore to meet the world steel demand. That's a lot of annual fuel use. See (for example): https://fortescue.com/what-we-do/green-energy-research/green-hydrogen https://fortescue.com/what-we-do/green-energy-research/green... where you're looking at serious physical engineers dealing with moving Mt Fuji magnitude problems of scale with billions in the budget. Contrary wise, see also: https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2021/Rio-Tinto-Teams-Up-with-Caterpillar-for-Zero-Emissions-Autonomous-Trucks https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2021/Rio-Tinto-Teams-... https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2022/Rio-Tinto-purchases-first-battery-electric-trains-for-the-Pilbara https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2022/Rio-Tinto-purcha... these being some of the largest, longest, heaviest trains globally.
  - bertil 3y ago
    I do not doubt that those trains will be powered by electricity (solar or wind: no one will object to either near a mine or along tracks). Similarly, if they need hydrogen as a reduction agent, they will produce it locally — i.e., not ask anyone trying to capture CO2 in the air or buy from it far away. No one is moving smelting facilities, so they’ll setup solar panels and wind farms around those. That’s why the argument of making those far away, in place known for nothing but sand and oil fields always felt disingenuous.
    - defrost 3y ago
      > no one will object to either near a mine or along tracks > in place known for nothing but sand and oil fields Errr, just as a reality check, almost all mines impact people in some form or another, often indigenous people who never adopted advanced western lifestyles that they are directly impacted by with mines, pipelines, climate effects, etc. FWiW I'm making that statement as someone with decades as an exploration geophysicist, backend developer of https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met... and someone who has negotiated on environmental impact statements with traditional landowners. In the US the proposed $64 billion half century supply Resolution Copper mine will impact people: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ceraweek-rio-tinto-keeps-working-build-indigenous-support-resolution-mine-2023-03-07 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ceraweek-rio-tin... despite being somewhere that many on HN would describe as "empty", "barren", "uninhabited", etc. Rio Tinto has stretched it's credibility with traditional owners in recent years: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/03/rio-tintos-alleged-underpayment-of-traditional-owners-of-wa-mine-area-sparks-calls-for-widespread-review https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/03/rio-t... https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/24/a-year-on-from-the-juukan-gorge-destruction-aboriginal-sacred-sites-remain-unprotected https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/24/a-yea...