4 ms·
> 2 million voters over the age of 55 die every year, 4 million voters turn 18. I think this is a bit of a simplification that makes the effect sound much more
by bandyaboot 3y ago
> 2 million voters over the age of 55 die every year, 4 million voters turn 18.
I think this is a bit of a simplification that makes the effect sound much more drastic than it really is. While 2 million voters over the age of 55 may die every year, they are replaced by a similar number of voters who just became over 55 and who's politics, on average, are only marginally different. Of course this applies to every age group as well. Not that I'm assuming that you're meaning to suggest that the effect is drastic, but I often see the very same line of reasoning in the political media and I'm quite certain it is what they're suggesting---because clicks.
- toomuchtodo 3y agoThe change is not drastic, but it is inevitable. 2 million deaths per year, 4 million per two year election cycle, 8 million every presidential election cycle. TLDR There are tipping points, keep an eye on these metrics to understand them and predict when they arrive. Think in systems. For example, Rep. Lauren Boebert won by only 546 votes last year in her district. You don't need much electorate change for that to not happen again. https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/demographic-changes-voters-fault-lines/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/demographic-changes-...
- PM_me_your_math 3y ago[flagged]
- mrtesthah 3y agoThat’s a blatant fabrication. Here’s a state-by-state, claim-by-claim refutation of your entire narrative. https://statesuniteddemocracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/000A-Myths-and-Facts-of-the-2020-Presidential-Election-20210113-FINAL.pdf https://statesuniteddemocracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01...
- bandyaboot 3y ago> I'm not a serious person. Please disregard my opinion on everything. Ok, thanks for the heads up!
- dukeyukey 3y agoAlthough as every year that ticks on, the people ageing into conservative middle-age are less and less likely to have a strong emotional or economic link to coal mining.