> Unless one in every 33 asteroids that have 3% impact probability at some point in time actually impacts earth There would be a ~63.4% chance that at least on

> Unless one in every 33 asteroids that have 3% impact probability at some point in time actually impacts earth There would be a ~63.4% chance that at least one would hit us if there were 33 such asteroids. To compute this, take 1-(0.97^33). I agree with your broader point though.