4 ms·
> This makes sense, thanks. It makes no fucking sense. There is 3% chance it'll be revised to 100% chance and 97% chance it'll be revised to 0% chance. Are
by aaron695 3y ago
> This makes sense, thanks.
It makes no fucking sense.
There is 3% chance it'll be revised to 100% chance and 97% chance it'll be revised to 0% chance.
Are you Yogi Berra?
It'll be reported like possible hurricanes hitting landfall.
If this has happed ~33 times then one will hit us.
If it's 400m it will kill 200,000 people assuming Vox is reporting correctly - https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/7/26/8931776/near-earth-asteroid-tracking https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/7/26/8931776/near-ea...
That will be 9 in 10 it hit's boring ocean and looks cool on satellites and one in 10 kills 2 million people and there will be some cool live streams.
Or the 3% in the title is a lie.
- jryb 3y ago> If this has happed ~33 times then one will hit us. There would be a ~63.4% chance that at least one would hit us if this happened 33 times. To compute this, take 1-(0.97^33). But I agree with your broader intuition that these predictions must be getting inflated.