2 ms·

> Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in t

by qwytw 3y ago

> Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in terms of wealth. Let's not pretend Ukraine doesn't have its own oligarch problem. They just had less to work with so are less globally prominent. > I think it would work out in favor of Ukraine With current exchange rates and the whole situation it's hard to say, but in the 10 years prior to 2022 the average wage in Russia was also about 2-3x as high as in Ukraine. Yes, Russia has more inequality but the median Ukrainian was still poorer. While the actions of Russia and it's government are of course evil (even to a cartoonish degree..). I don't think it's wise to over idealize the situation in Ukraine. Even before the invasion it was the poorest country in Europe. It was also one of the most mismanaged ones over the last 30 years as well (and not just because of Russian influence they have a huge amount of internal issues, especially corruption). That's not something you can change in a few years and Ukraine will still have a huge way to go after the war is over.

jacquesm 3y ago
> Let's not pretend Ukraine doesn't have its own oligarch problem. Let's not pretend it is even close to what's happening in Russia. That's just another whataboutism play, Ukraine (nor any other Eastern European state) is lily white but Russia takes it to another level entirely. > With current exchange rates and the whole situation it's hard to say, but in the 10 years prior to 2022 the average wage in Russia was also about 2-3x as high as in Ukraine. Yes, Russia has more inequality but the median Ukrainian was still poorer. Where did we switch from 'average' to 'median'? > While the actions of Russia and it's government are of course evil (even to a cartoonish degree..). I don't think it's wise to over idealize the situation in Ukraine. I don't. But Ukraine was clearly on the way up and if not for the earlier invasion they would likely have been further out of the hole already. Not unlike say Bulgaria or Romania, but still poorer. > Even before the invasion it was the poorest country in Europe. Yes, the Russians had done an excellent job at destroying the country. But still, it had a lot of promise, and was progressing. > It was also one of the most mismanaged ones over the last 30 years as well (and not just because of Russian influence they have a huge amount of internal issues, especially corruption). In part because of ongoing Russian efforts to destabilize the country as well as an invasion. You can't just wave that away. Corruption is a problem in lots of countries, including many Western ones. What complicated matters is that just like in some other former SovBloc countries there is no solid framework for governance and the clock is as likely to tick forward as it is to go back. This is a real problem and solving it will take time and effort and I'm not sure if the Ukrainians would have been able to get that particular daemon of their shoulder, judging by how Romania and Bulgaria have done I am doubtful, especially about the larger scale. > That's not something you can change in a few years and Ukraine will still have a huge way to go after the war is over. That's true, but - ironically - Russia will now have a much, much harder time of it and they too were at some point well underway. Talking to Russian emigrees is painful, they are very much aware of the fact that their country had a window of opportunity to shake off the past and that they'd missed it, and that this is going to get a lot worse before it has any chance to get better. It must be highly frustrating to be in their shoes, to see your home country dissolve into absolute chaos without any ability to do something concrete about it, and all at the behest of a few thousand criminals.
- qwytw 3y ago
  > That's just another whataboutism play I'm sorry but that's nonsense. "Whataboutism" about what? Local oligarchs and extreme corruption are huge issues in Ukraine and have been holding it back more than Russia before the war. And yeah, corruption exists everywhere but there not that many places (in the developed world) where it's even close to being as bad. > Where did we switch from 'average' to 'median'? That doesen't change the point. > In part because of ongoing Russian efforts to destabilize the country as well as an invasion. You can't just wave that away. I'm not. Ukraine has been in a terribly state pre 2014 as well. Russia shot themselves in the foot (or their economy anyway) back in 2014 but by then the gap between it and Ukraine was already huge. > Romania and Bulgaria have done I am doubtful, especially about the larger scale. Economically Ukraine is now where Romania and Bulgaria were back in 2005 or so. Yes Russia is obviously the main problem currently but it's not the only reason Ukraine is (and was back in 2014) 10-20 years behind pretty much all other ex-soviet/socialist countries in Europe besides Moldova.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    The main reasons Ukraine is as far behind as it is is because (1) it isn't proximate to a large and wealthy country that can invest there in a similar manner to how Germany helped to lift Poland out of the mess it was in in 1989, and (2) that it never got integrated into the EU which would have put strict limits on a whole raft of things. Not that that is a guarantee but it would at least have provided a carrot and a stick instead of just a stick. I've spent a lot of time (many years) in former Sovbloc countries and I've seen up close how tremendously corrupt those countries were before the wall fell and how much heavy lifting had to be done to begin to undo the many years of erosion of the will and the hope of the people there to make a serious change. Poland and the Czech republic are the success stories, everybody else, including Hungary is still suffering tremendously in the present and I'm not all that sure about Poland in the longer term either. The scars run deep and they are plentiful. Ukraine has one better than expected given their history and proximity to Russia, as well as Russia's continuous attempts to interfere in their affairs in an attempt to turn Ukraine into another Belarus. Russia had another option: to play nice and to decrease the wealth gap but the fat cats wouldn't have it, they only know how to rape and plunder, wealth creation isn't even in their vocabulary. You can't solve the corruption issues before you have a functioning democracy and you can't have a functioning democracy whilst your 10x larger neighbor is doing its level best to destroy your political systems.

by qwytw 3y ago

jacquesm 3y ago

> Let's not pretend Ukraine doesn't have its own oligarch problem. Let's not pretend it is even close to what's happening in Russia. That's just another whataboutism play, Ukraine (nor any other Eastern European state) is lily white but Russia takes it to another level entirely. > With current exchange rates and the whole situation it's hard to say, but in the 10 years prior to 2022 the average wage in Russia was also about 2-3x as high as in Ukraine. Yes, Russia has more inequality but the median Ukrainian was still poorer. Where did we switch from 'average' to 'median'? > While the actions of Russia and it's government are of course evil (even to a cartoonish degree..). I don't think it's wise to over idealize the situation in Ukraine. I don't. But Ukraine was clearly on the way up and if not for the earlier invasion they would likely have been further out of the hole already. Not unlike say Bulgaria or Romania, but still poorer. > Even before the invasion it was the poorest country in Europe. Yes, the Russians had done an excellent job at destroying the country. But still, it had a lot of promise, and was progressing. > It was also one of the most mismanaged ones over the last 30 years as well (and not just because of Russian influence they have a huge amount of internal issues, especially corruption). In part because of ongoing Russian efforts to destabilize the country as well as an invasion. You can't just wave that away. Corruption is a problem in lots of countries, including many Western ones. What complicated matters is that just like in some other former SovBloc countries there is no solid framework for governance and the clock is as likely to tick forward as it is to go back. This is a real problem and solving it will take time and effort and I'm not sure if the Ukrainians would have been able to get that particular daemon of their shoulder, judging by how Romania and Bulgaria have done I am doubtful, especially about the larger scale. > That's not something you can change in a few years and Ukraine will still have a huge way to go after the war is over. That's true, but - ironically - Russia will now have a much, much harder time of it and they too were at some point well underway. Talking to Russian emigrees is painful, they are very much aware of the fact that their country had a window of opportunity to shake off the past and that they'd missed it, and that this is going to get a lot worse before it has any chance to get better. It must be highly frustrating to be in their shoes, to see your home country dissolve into absolute chaos without any ability to do something concrete about it, and all at the behest of a few thousand criminals.

qwytw 3y ago
> That's just another whataboutism play I'm sorry but that's nonsense. "Whataboutism" about what? Local oligarchs and extreme corruption are huge issues in Ukraine and have been holding it back more than Russia before the war. And yeah, corruption exists everywhere but there not that many places (in the developed world) where it's even close to being as bad. > Where did we switch from 'average' to 'median'? That doesen't change the point. > In part because of ongoing Russian efforts to destabilize the country as well as an invasion. You can't just wave that away. I'm not. Ukraine has been in a terribly state pre 2014 as well. Russia shot themselves in the foot (or their economy anyway) back in 2014 but by then the gap between it and Ukraine was already huge. > Romania and Bulgaria have done I am doubtful, especially about the larger scale. Economically Ukraine is now where Romania and Bulgaria were back in 2005 or so. Yes Russia is obviously the main problem currently but it's not the only reason Ukraine is (and was back in 2014) 10-20 years behind pretty much all other ex-soviet/socialist countries in Europe besides Moldova.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  The main reasons Ukraine is as far behind as it is is because (1) it isn't proximate to a large and wealthy country that can invest there in a similar manner to how Germany helped to lift Poland out of the mess it was in in 1989, and (2) that it never got integrated into the EU which would have put strict limits on a whole raft of things. Not that that is a guarantee but it would at least have provided a carrot and a stick instead of just a stick. I've spent a lot of time (many years) in former Sovbloc countries and I've seen up close how tremendously corrupt those countries were before the wall fell and how much heavy lifting had to be done to begin to undo the many years of erosion of the will and the hope of the people there to make a serious change. Poland and the Czech republic are the success stories, everybody else, including Hungary is still suffering tremendously in the present and I'm not all that sure about Poland in the longer term either. The scars run deep and they are plentiful. Ukraine has one better than expected given their history and proximity to Russia, as well as Russia's continuous attempts to interfere in their affairs in an attempt to turn Ukraine into another Belarus. Russia had another option: to play nice and to decrease the wealth gap but the fat cats wouldn't have it, they only know how to rape and plunder, wealth creation isn't even in their vocabulary. You can't solve the corruption issues before you have a functioning democracy and you can't have a functioning democracy whilst your 10x larger neighbor is doing its level best to destroy your political systems.