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What makes you say that? I mean there is a lot of murder and destruction but I don't see how even he could've expected that could ever be directly profitable.

• jacquesm 3y ago
  The land has worth, the ability to control more of the fossil fuel streams to the West has value, the ability to hold a large chunk of the world's grain production has value, the population has value (in the most cynical sense of the word). Lots of people have been taken across the border into Russia proper including large numbers of children. This is fairly well documented. Also, Ukraine was on average richer per capita than Russia so to take down that neighbor may have looked like a nice way to make themselves look better.
  • qwytw 3y ago
    > Ukraine was on average richer per capita I'm not sure that was ever the case since at least 1990. In fact the complete opposite, Russian GDP per capita was always at least 2x larger than Ukraine's. It was even almost 4x higher just before Russia started the war in 2014. Of course Russian GDP is/was heavily inflated by fossil fuel and raw material exports but still.. Ukraine was and is a very poor country by European standards (basically in the 90s and 2000s they had all the corruption etc. Russia had if not worse just without the oil/gas revenue). > world's grain production has value Yes, but but being able to sell gas and oil to Europe economically has much more value. And well, I'm not saying that people don't have "economic value" but people who hate you and don't want to be part of your country can possibly have negative value. I just don't see how could this war could've ever been economically/financially "rational" unless putin was utterly delusional and certain that they could decapitate the government in Kiev in a week and install a puppet regime without any western sanctions.
    • jacquesm 3y ago
      Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in terms of wealth. You are probably right that if you include the fat cats that it works out in the favor of Russia, but for the 'average Ukrainian' and the 'average Russian' I think it would work out in favor of Ukraine. I could have worded that better. Keep in mind that Russia is huge and that very large chunks of it are extremely poor.
      • qwytw 3y ago
        > Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in terms of wealth. Let's not pretend Ukraine doesn't have its own oligarch problem. They just had less to work with so are less globally prominent. > I think it would work out in favor of Ukraine With current exchange rates and the whole situation it's hard to say, but in the 10 years prior to 2022 the average wage in Russia was also about 2-3x as high as in Ukraine. Yes, Russia has more inequality but the median Ukrainian was still poorer. While the actions of Russia and it's government are of course evil (even to a cartoonish degree..). I don't think it's wise to over idealize the situation in Ukraine. Even before the invasion it was the poorest country in Europe. It was also one of the most mismanaged ones over the last 30 years as well (and not just because of Russian influence they have a huge amount of internal issues, especially corruption). That's not something you can change in a few years and Ukraine will still have a huge way to go after the war is over.
        • jacquesm 3y ago
          > Let's not pretend Ukraine doesn't have its own oligarch problem. Let's not pretend it is even close to what's happening in Russia. That's just another whataboutism play, Ukraine (nor any other Eastern European state) is lily white but Russia takes it to another level entirely. > With current exchange rates and the whole situation it's hard to say, but in the 10 years prior to 2022 the average wage in Russia was also about 2-3x as high as in Ukraine. Yes, Russia has more inequality but the median Ukrainian was still poorer. Where did we switch from 'average' to 'median'? > While the actions of Russia and it's government are of course evil (even to a cartoonish degree..). I don't think it's wise to over idealize the situation in Ukraine. I don't. But Ukraine was clearly on the way up and if not for the earlier invasion they would likely have been further out of the hole already. Not unlike say Bulgaria or Romania, but still poorer. > Even before the invasion it was the poorest country in Europe. Yes, the Russians had done an excellent job at destroying the country. But still, it had a lot of promise, and was progressing. > It was also one of the most mismanaged ones over the last 30 years as well (and not just because of Russian influence they have a huge amount of internal issues, especially corruption). In part because of ongoing Russian efforts to destabilize the country as well as an invasion. You can't just wave that away. Corruption is a problem in lots of countries, including many Western ones. What complicated matters is that just like in some other former SovBloc countries there is no solid framework for governance and the clock is as likely to tick forward as it is to go back. This is a real problem and solving it will take time and effort and I'm not sure if the Ukrainians would have been able to get that particular daemon of their shoulder, judging by how Romania and Bulgaria have done I am doubtful, especially about the larger scale. > That's not something you can change in a few years and Ukraine will still have a huge way to go after the war is over. That's true, but - ironically - Russia will now have a much, much harder time of it and they too were at some point well underway. Talking to Russian emigrees is painful, they are very much aware of the fact that their country had a window of opportunity to shake off the past and that they'd missed it, and that this is going to get a lot worse before it has any chance to get better. It must be highly frustrating to be in their shoes, to see your home country dissolve into absolute chaos without any ability to do something concrete about it, and all at the behest of a few thousand criminals.