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China has been on the "brink of collapse" for over 15 years now. Wake me up when it actually happens.
by Workaccount2 3y ago
China has been on the "brink of collapse" for over 15 years now.
Wake me up when it actually happens.
- jacquesm 3y agoI am not aware of China having been 'on the brink of collapse for over 15 years now', in fact they were doing quite well, right up to COVID. And since then it has been a fairly long series of bad news, resulting in mass unemployment and significant economic slowdown, in part due to the reduced demand from the rest of the world. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic Is an interesting chart, it shows a significant slowdown in Western demand which combined with the COVID aftereffects in China itself is having a serious effect on the economy. Whether it is enough to push China into a deep recession is anybody's guess but that is mostly because the figures of industrial output produced by the authorities are hard to confirm, so people tend to take them with a very large grain of salt. I don't think China's economy will crash hard unless either Europe's or the US's goes into a deep recession too but I can't rule that out either and I suspect that China will go down a lot harder in case that does happen because the internal economy is relatively weak compared to their exports. This is a serious vulnerability in their setup.
- Workaccount2 3y agoMy comment doesn't come from a place of careful analysis of China's economy. It comes from a place of headlines and online strangers over the last 15 years saying "China is toast next year" and it just never happens.
- jacquesm 3y agoThe unemployment numbers based on what I hear from Chinese that are still strongly connected to the motherland are really bad. Much worse than in the last decade plus and this isn't a simple problem to solve.