3 ms·

> "waging a war to get out of an economic depression" I guess it used to be true back in the ancient times when you could sack cities steal all of their stuff

by qwytw 3y ago

> "waging a war to get out of an economic depression" I guess it used to be true back in the ancient times when you could sack cities steal all of their stuff and enslave the entire population (well.. at least those you didn't murder anyway). Not sure this really applies too almost all industrial wars to any degree. Of course there might be some indirect benefits, like wars generally make political/social/economics reforms much easier (which I guess might be both a good and a bad thing)

jacquesm 3y ago
> I guess it used to be true back in the ancient times when you could sack cities steal all of their stuff and enslave the entire population (well.. at least those you didn't murder anyway). That is exactly Putin's playbook for Ukraine.
- qwytw 3y ago
  What makes you say that? I mean there is a lot of murder and destruction but I don't see how even he could've expected that could ever be directly profitable. A single tank is probably worth more than whatever you can loot from at least a medium size village (maybe even a small town) in Ukraine. Stuff just isn't worth that much these days compared to the 100s BC.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    The land has worth, the ability to control more of the fossil fuel streams to the West has value, the ability to hold a large chunk of the world's grain production has value, the population has value (in the most cynical sense of the word). Lots of people have been taken across the border into Russia proper including large numbers of children. This is fairly well documented. Also, Ukraine was on average richer per capita than Russia so to take down that neighbor may have looked like a nice way to make themselves look better.
    - qwytw 3y ago
      > Ukraine was on average richer per capita I'm not sure that was ever the case since at least 1990. In fact the complete opposite, Russian GDP per capita was always at least 2x larger than Ukraine's. It was even almost 4x higher just before Russia started the war in 2014. Of course Russian GDP is/was heavily inflated by fossil fuel and raw material exports but still.. Ukraine was and is a very poor country by European standards (basically in the 90s and 2000s they had all the corruption etc. Russia had if not worse just without the oil/gas revenue). > world's grain production has value Yes, but but being able to sell gas and oil to Europe economically has much more value. And well, I'm not saying that people don't have "economic value" but people who hate you and don't want to be part of your country can possibly have negative value. I just don't see how could this war could've ever been economically/financially "rational" unless putin was utterly delusional and certain that they could decapitate the government in Kiev in a week and install a puppet regime without any western sanctions.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in terms of wealth. You are probably right that if you include the fat cats that it works out in the favor of Russia, but for the 'average Ukrainian' and the 'average Russian' I think it would work out in favor of Ukraine. I could have worded that better. Keep in mind that Russia is huge and that very large chunks of it are extremely poor.
        qwytw 3y ago
        > Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in terms of wealth. Let's not pretend Ukraine doesn't have its own oligarch problem. They just had less to work with so are less globally prominent. > I think it would work out in favor of Ukraine With current exchange rates and the whole situation it's hard to say, but in the 10 years prior to 2022 the average wage in Russia was also about 2-3x as high as in Ukraine. Yes, Russia has more inequality but the median Ukrainian was still poorer. While the actions of Russia and it's government are of course evil (even to a cartoonish degree..). I don't think it's wise to over idealize the situation in Ukraine. Even before the invasion it was the poorest country in Europe. It was also one of the most mismanaged ones over the last 30 years as well (and not just because of Russian influence they have a huge amount of internal issues, especially corruption). That's not something you can change in a few years and Ukraine will still have a huge way to go after the war is over.

by qwytw 3y ago

jacquesm 3y ago

> I guess it used to be true back in the ancient times when you could sack cities steal all of their stuff and enslave the entire population (well.. at least those you didn't murder anyway). That is exactly Putin's playbook for Ukraine.

qwytw 3y ago
What makes you say that? I mean there is a lot of murder and destruction but I don't see how even he could've expected that could ever be directly profitable. A single tank is probably worth more than whatever you can loot from at least a medium size village (maybe even a small town) in Ukraine. Stuff just isn't worth that much these days compared to the 100s BC.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  The land has worth, the ability to control more of the fossil fuel streams to the West has value, the ability to hold a large chunk of the world's grain production has value, the population has value (in the most cynical sense of the word). Lots of people have been taken across the border into Russia proper including large numbers of children. This is fairly well documented. Also, Ukraine was on average richer per capita than Russia so to take down that neighbor may have looked like a nice way to make themselves look better.
  - qwytw 3y ago
    > Ukraine was on average richer per capita I'm not sure that was ever the case since at least 1990. In fact the complete opposite, Russian GDP per capita was always at least 2x larger than Ukraine's. It was even almost 4x higher just before Russia started the war in 2014. Of course Russian GDP is/was heavily inflated by fossil fuel and raw material exports but still.. Ukraine was and is a very poor country by European standards (basically in the 90s and 2000s they had all the corruption etc. Russia had if not worse just without the oil/gas revenue). > world's grain production has value Yes, but but being able to sell gas and oil to Europe economically has much more value. And well, I'm not saying that people don't have "economic value" but people who hate you and don't want to be part of your country can possibly have negative value. I just don't see how could this war could've ever been economically/financially "rational" unless putin was utterly delusional and certain that they could decapitate the government in Kiev in a week and install a puppet regime without any western sanctions.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in terms of wealth. You are probably right that if you include the fat cats that it works out in the favor of Russia, but for the 'average Ukrainian' and the 'average Russian' I think it would work out in favor of Ukraine. I could have worded that better. Keep in mind that Russia is huge and that very large chunks of it are extremely poor.
      - qwytw 3y ago
        > Russia 'per capita' with or without the handful of oligargs that make off with the bulk of the Russian GDP? Because that's a huge difference with Ukraine in terms of wealth. Let's not pretend Ukraine doesn't have its own oligarch problem. They just had less to work with so are less globally prominent. > I think it would work out in favor of Ukraine With current exchange rates and the whole situation it's hard to say, but in the 10 years prior to 2022 the average wage in Russia was also about 2-3x as high as in Ukraine. Yes, Russia has more inequality but the median Ukrainian was still poorer. While the actions of Russia and it's government are of course evil (even to a cartoonish degree..). I don't think it's wise to over idealize the situation in Ukraine. Even before the invasion it was the poorest country in Europe. It was also one of the most mismanaged ones over the last 30 years as well (and not just because of Russian influence they have a huge amount of internal issues, especially corruption). That's not something you can change in a few years and Ukraine will still have a huge way to go after the war is over.