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Going to disagree. The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. Not to mention , it is also a hist

Going to disagree. The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. Not to mention , it is also a historical mark that American hegemony in the Pacific is over. This isn't something TPTB are willing to accept or allow. Such an invasion is the precursor to a hot nuclear war almost immediately with China becoming a pariah state over night. At a baseline Taiwan gets the same love and support Ukraine gets while America begins fielding jets and carrier groups from both Guam and Japan. A build up on amphibious vehicles would be visibly apparent in the coasts for weeks leading up then they'll have to cross 80 miles of ocean. It was obvious Russia was going to invade Ukraine. China won't be able to do a surprise attack.

jacquesm 3y ago
> The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. The US may not have a choice. They would have to be willing to escalate to WWIII levels to stop it and that may - depending on who is in the driving seat - a lot more or less likely. My guess is that if the Republicans win the next election cycle that the chances of Taiwan being invaded go up considerably. Note that wars are started because countries turn inwards and are ended because countries realize that without a world to operate in they themselves can't function. Plenty of lessons reinforce that. The Republicans and the people that would rather let Ukraine be overrun have significant overlap and if and when they come to power again there will be serious trouble, with the magnitude of the trouble directly related to how willing the USA is to continue to lead NATO. Note that there are plenty of voices that the US should stop supporting Ukraine from the right side of aisle and that that alone could be a green light for Xi to move on Taiwan. > Not to mention , it is also a historical mark that American hegemony in the Pacific is over. That's not that important, the US is able to project power around the globe from its own continent with ease. The question is whether it is willing to use that power. The moment the credible threat goes out the window there will be a free for all. > At a baseline Taiwan gets the same love and support Ukraine gets while America begins fielding jets and carrier groups from both Guam and Japan. Yes, because the US needs Taiwan right now. But if they no longer need Taiwan then that support may well evaporate, and Japan, Korea and Singapore are all painfully aware that it may not last. For instance there have been longstanding talks about Japan rearming. https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spending-weapons-buildup-rearming https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spen... Japan is concerned both about the Chinese and the Russians. > A build up on amphibious vehicles would be visibly apparent in the coasts for weeks leading up then they'll have to cross 80 miles of ocean. Yes, which they could do in a few hours, and there is absolutely no way that the US will make a first strike on the Chinese fleet in international waters with nuclear - or any other - weapons. Only when they cross the line demarcating the Taiwanese coastal waters would there be a green light for action, my guess is that that action would be mostly concerned with making sure that there wasn't any reason to continue with the invasion because everything of value was destroyed. It would be a useless victory. I'm fairly sure that Xi - and Putin - are both surprised at the degree of support that Ukraine has received to date - too little, in my view - and that the effect on the Russian economy has been very strong. And the Russian economy was less dependent on the West than the Chinese one. So that more than anything is what is probably signalling that invading Taiwan isn't going to end well for the invader. But that may not stop them from trying, though I still consider Xi to be a more rational leader than Putin.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  I enjoy your analysis. One caveat is that the Republicans have more of an anti-China sentiment than anti-Russia. Trump and Pompeo have precedent of making last minute pro-Taiwan moves before leaving office. It may be that Republicans behind the scenes see Ukraine as more of an economical money-pit and Taiwan as essential to good economics. I agree they are increasingly isolationist (to the detriment of their WW2 ancestors they're so proud of, who are turning in their grave)
- deaddodo 3y ago
  > with the magnitude of the trouble directly related to how willing the USA is to continue to lead NATO. The US has never led NATO. None of it's Secretary positions have ever been American and it was formed from two European-power instigated treaties combining into one, specifically requesting US-backing during the enjoinment process. It has had a preeminent position in military positions (SACEUR, prominently), for fairly obvious reasons, but even many of those have been pared back since the cessation of Cold War hostilities (mid-90s). Discuss American hegemony and it's pros/cons however you like, but at least get basic facts correct if you're going to do a "deepdive" into geopolitics.

jacquesm 3y ago

> The US letting China successfully invade Taiwan means the loss of Japan, Korea, and Singapore as allies. The US may not have a choice. They would have to be willing to escalate to WWIII levels to stop it and that may - depending on who is in the driving seat - a lot more or less likely. My guess is that if the Republicans win the next election cycle that the chances of Taiwan being invaded go up considerably. Note that wars are started because countries turn inwards and are ended because countries realize that without a world to operate in they themselves can't function. Plenty of lessons reinforce that. The Republicans and the people that would rather let Ukraine be overrun have significant overlap and if and when they come to power again there will be serious trouble, with the magnitude of the trouble directly related to how willing the USA is to continue to lead NATO. Note that there are plenty of voices that the US should stop supporting Ukraine from the right side of aisle and that that alone could be a green light for Xi to move on Taiwan. > Not to mention , it is also a historical mark that American hegemony in the Pacific is over. That's not that important, the US is able to project power around the globe from its own continent with ease. The question is whether it is willing to use that power. The moment the credible threat goes out the window there will be a free for all. > At a baseline Taiwan gets the same love and support Ukraine gets while America begins fielding jets and carrier groups from both Guam and Japan. Yes, because the US needs Taiwan right now. But if they no longer need Taiwan then that support may well evaporate, and Japan, Korea and Singapore are all painfully aware that it may not last. For instance there have been longstanding talks about Japan rearming. https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spending-weapons-buildup-rearming https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143017026/japan-defense-spen... Japan is concerned both about the Chinese and the Russians. > A build up on amphibious vehicles would be visibly apparent in the coasts for weeks leading up then they'll have to cross 80 miles of ocean. Yes, which they could do in a few hours, and there is absolutely no way that the US will make a first strike on the Chinese fleet in international waters with nuclear - or any other - weapons. Only when they cross the line demarcating the Taiwanese coastal waters would there be a green light for action, my guess is that that action would be mostly concerned with making sure that there wasn't any reason to continue with the invasion because everything of value was destroyed. It would be a useless victory. I'm fairly sure that Xi - and Putin - are both surprised at the degree of support that Ukraine has received to date - too little, in my view - and that the effect on the Russian economy has been very strong. And the Russian economy was less dependent on the West than the Chinese one. So that more than anything is what is probably signalling that invading Taiwan isn't going to end well for the invader. But that may not stop them from trying, though I still consider Xi to be a more rational leader than Putin.

reducesuffering 3y ago
I enjoy your analysis. One caveat is that the Republicans have more of an anti-China sentiment than anti-Russia. Trump and Pompeo have precedent of making last minute pro-Taiwan moves before leaving office. It may be that Republicans behind the scenes see Ukraine as more of an economical money-pit and Taiwan as essential to good economics. I agree they are increasingly isolationist (to the detriment of their WW2 ancestors they're so proud of, who are turning in their grave)
deaddodo 3y ago
> with the magnitude of the trouble directly related to how willing the USA is to continue to lead NATO. The US has never led NATO. None of it's Secretary positions have ever been American and it was formed from two European-power instigated treaties combining into one, specifically requesting US-backing during the enjoinment process. It has had a preeminent position in military positions (SACEUR, prominently), for fairly obvious reasons, but even many of those have been pared back since the cessation of Cold War hostilities (mid-90s). Discuss American hegemony and it's pros/cons however you like, but at least get basic facts correct if you're going to do a "deepdive" into geopolitics.