4 ms·

Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021, at a time when military build up was already evident and hence, the obvious consequen

by brabel 3y ago

Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021, at a time when military build up was already evident and hence, the obvious consequence of refusing to negotiate would be military action. The only surprise was that they actually went ahead with what they were clearly threatening to do for months (the attack only came months after that ultimatum, in late February 2022). We keep forgetting that in the past, people also didn't go to war just because they had nothing else to do, it usually occurred because of completely irreconcilable differences. The only way this won't happen in the future is if we avoid getting to that point in the first place: there is always a point where "fight" is the only way forward, unfortunately. But with both Ukraine and Russia almost completely unwilling to back out of their respective positions, the very disagreement that started the war is going to continue and they will remain in "fight" mode... with both saying "nope" to any negotiations until one of their militaries is almost entirely obliterated and it's plain as glass that the fight cannot continue and they are forced to accept the other's conditions without restrictions. Most wars end with something in the middle - as both sides eventually realize that full victory is just not going to happen... they eventually come to a compromise! But in this case, for both sides to get to that position is likely to require huge destruction first, which we are already seeing and getting "numb" about, which is horrible of course (yes, humanity is still the same old killing machine, incapable of sorting its disagreements without shooting at each other). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_2021_ultimatum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_20...

dragonwriter 3y ago
> Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021 More people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum in 2008 regarding giving MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine, and when NATO complied by not doing so, just as Russia demanded, Russia immediately invaded Georgia, and once that conflict went from active to mostly frozen, immediately invaded Ukraine as soon as they again didn’t have a Russia-compliant leader. And the same people seem to forget that the ultimatum in 2021 was during the war of aggression launched in 2014, not before a conflict that started later.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  Yep. The informed analysis around the NATO ultimatum before the invasion was that it was not in good-faith. It was a non-starter to be used as another pretext, not actually something NATO can fulfill all of, or even if they did, wouldn't deter the problems Russian kleptocracy are facing (a prosperous west-aligned Ukraine, like Poland, that shows their neighbors they are being swindled by corrupt oligarchs.)
  - brabel 3y ago
    I think that any war starts when the demands of one side are considered as "non-starters" to the other side. If that was not the case, there simply would be no war.
    - reducesuffering 3y ago
      Well Ukraine was invaded, but they aren't a part of NATO. You should take into account there are times when war can be avoided by compromise, and there are times when the "demands" are essentially "give us all territory, sovereignty, and resources." If you would like to lump those together as the victim not negotiating enough because the aggressor submitted "non-starters," that's on you. If you actually want to understand the problems with the Russian invasion-pretext demands at the time, there's https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
      - brabel 3y ago
        > and there are times when the "demands" are essentially "give us all territory, sovereignty, and resources." This was not one of those times. If you look at the demands in the ultimatum, Ukraine actually just had to NOT do anything (e.g. do not continue process to join NATO).
        dragonwriter 3y ago
        > If you look at the demands in the ultimatum, Ukraine actually just had to NOT do anything (e.g. do not continue process to join NATO). First, this ultimatum was after (by 7 years) the beginning of rhe invasion, not before. Second, the content described is false. In fact, while the threat was implicitly directed at Ukraine, and that’s where the escalation of the ongoing war occurred, the ultimatum’s demands were directed largely at other countries: it demanded that NATO make a binding commitment not to admit any new members (with no time limit) especially Ukraine and Georgia [0], and that NATO make a binding commitment not to deploy additional non-local troops in existing NATO member-states, that NATO withdraw troops and infrastructure from states, including NATO members, that were former members of the Soviet Union, that NATO recognize a special Russian role in ensuring stability and security among the former Soviet states, that Russia receive international guarantees of respect for its sovereignty and territorial security, including over Crimea (which it was illegally occupying and had claimed to annex) and the Donbass (wherr it was sponsoring separatists but had not yet formally claimed to annex), and the establishment of a moratorium on short- and intermediate-range missiles in Europe, and reforms of the OSCE. [0] this part alone was an major expansion of the 2008 ultimatum not to offer MAPs at that tine to Ukraine and Georgia which, when NATO acceded to when it was made, Russia immediately invaded Georgia.

by brabel 3y ago

dragonwriter 3y ago

> Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021 More people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum in 2008 regarding giving MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine, and when NATO complied by not doing so, just as Russia demanded, Russia immediately invaded Georgia, and once that conflict went from active to mostly frozen, immediately invaded Ukraine as soon as they again didn’t have a Russia-compliant leader. And the same people seem to forget that the ultimatum in 2021 was during the war of aggression launched in 2014, not before a conflict that started later.

reducesuffering 3y ago
Yep. The informed analysis around the NATO ultimatum before the invasion was that it was not in good-faith. It was a non-starter to be used as another pretext, not actually something NATO can fulfill all of, or even if they did, wouldn't deter the problems Russian kleptocracy are facing (a prosperous west-aligned Ukraine, like Poland, that shows their neighbors they are being swindled by corrupt oligarchs.)
- brabel 3y ago
  I think that any war starts when the demands of one side are considered as "non-starters" to the other side. If that was not the case, there simply would be no war.
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    Well Ukraine was invaded, but they aren't a part of NATO. You should take into account there are times when war can be avoided by compromise, and there are times when the "demands" are essentially "give us all territory, sovereignty, and resources." If you would like to lump those together as the victim not negotiating enough because the aggressor submitted "non-starters," that's on you. If you actually want to understand the problems with the Russian invasion-pretext demands at the time, there's https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
    - brabel 3y ago
      > and there are times when the "demands" are essentially "give us all territory, sovereignty, and resources." This was not one of those times. If you look at the demands in the ultimatum, Ukraine actually just had to NOT do anything (e.g. do not continue process to join NATO).
      - dragonwriter 3y ago
        > If you look at the demands in the ultimatum, Ukraine actually just had to NOT do anything (e.g. do not continue process to join NATO). First, this ultimatum was after (by 7 years) the beginning of rhe invasion, not before. Second, the content described is false. In fact, while the threat was implicitly directed at Ukraine, and that’s where the escalation of the ongoing war occurred, the ultimatum’s demands were directed largely at other countries: it demanded that NATO make a binding commitment not to admit any new members (with no time limit) especially Ukraine and Georgia [0], and that NATO make a binding commitment not to deploy additional non-local troops in existing NATO member-states, that NATO withdraw troops and infrastructure from states, including NATO members, that were former members of the Soviet Union, that NATO recognize a special Russian role in ensuring stability and security among the former Soviet states, that Russia receive international guarantees of respect for its sovereignty and territorial security, including over Crimea (which it was illegally occupying and had claimed to annex) and the Donbass (wherr it was sponsoring separatists but had not yet formally claimed to annex), and the establishment of a moratorium on short- and intermediate-range missiles in Europe, and reforms of the OSCE. [0] this part alone was an major expansion of the 2008 ultimatum not to offer MAPs at that tine to Ukraine and Georgia which, when NATO acceded to when it was made, Russia immediately invaded Georgia.