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Pretty much everyone would survive the immediate event (except those in a plane or on a ventilator). The problem is the consequences of frying of the electrica

by gumby 3y ago

Pretty much everyone would survive the immediate event (except those in a plane or on a ventilator). The problem is the consequences of frying of the electrical grid, satellites and terrestrial telecom networks, vehicles, probably datacenters, even possibly some personal electronics like glucose pumps. Subsistance farmers would probably be OK. But most of them also depend on external supply chains like fertilisers, clean water, etc. Nobody else is an island, and that's quote no longer just applies to social ties: we depend on a web of relationships for everything: food, fuel, everything. Most (90+%?) of the global population will starve within a few weeks, even before disease gets them. That's why survivalists and "bunker" types always seem crazy to me: unless they're the unibomber they plan for a fixed horizon for the "bad times".

hattmall 3y ago
I don't get why you think people would starve to death though. Wouldn't this be something that last like a couple of days? There might be some long tail food shortages, but I would think obviously food distribution is going to be prioritised. At the same time, if you think people starving to death is a viable issue why do you think bunker types are crazy? It seems like this is exactly the type of thing the bunk would be suited for in that you typically store a year or two worth of food in it.
- gumby 3y ago
  If the grid goes down how long does it take to step it up again? If transformers have been destroyed? They take years to make. How can a replacement transformer be built with no power? How will you charge your car or pump fuel into it? How will the refineries make fuel? And as for the bunkers: if civilization is destroyed, once your supplies are exhausted you emerge to…? There aren’t any grocery stores.
- gremlinsinc 3y ago
  Most estimates put repairing the grid if all the transformers in America blew at once at around 24 months. significantly longer than a few days. Could you survive without gas stations, cell phones, computers, grocery stores, and a freezer or fridge or oven or washer and dryer etc -- for two whole years?
  - hattmall 3y ago
    WHy would we need the entire grid to be back up to not starve though. Obviously we would prioritize things and critical infrastructure would be first. What would actually be damaged though. WOuld an individual generator, batteries, actual appliances? Is it just transformers on the grid. Are the wires still good. Also would it hit the entire world, or just the side that was facing the sun at the peak or something?
ianburrell 3y ago
Vehicles, data centers, and electronics would be untouched. Solar storm induces currents in long conductors like electrical grid and internet cables. Internet cables being problem is a new thing; I'm sort of surprised since I would expect water and earth to protect them. The big danger is that it will destroy a lot of transformers and those are hard to replace. My impression is that it is relatively easy to protect the electrical grid by grounding everything. Also, Carrington event is predictable once the flare happens. The electrical grid can be shut down, and shouldn't be damaged much when shut down. Doing the cold start would be a challenge. As would be making the decision to shut down the grid.

by gumby 3y ago

hattmall 3y ago

I don't get why you think people would starve to death though. Wouldn't this be something that last like a couple of days? There might be some long tail food shortages, but I would think obviously food distribution is going to be prioritised. At the same time, if you think people starving to death is a viable issue why do you think bunker types are crazy? It seems like this is exactly the type of thing the bunk would be suited for in that you typically store a year or two worth of food in it.

gumby 3y ago
If the grid goes down how long does it take to step it up again? If transformers have been destroyed? They take years to make. How can a replacement transformer be built with no power? How will you charge your car or pump fuel into it? How will the refineries make fuel? And as for the bunkers: if civilization is destroyed, once your supplies are exhausted you emerge to…? There aren’t any grocery stores.
gremlinsinc 3y ago
Most estimates put repairing the grid if all the transformers in America blew at once at around 24 months. significantly longer than a few days. Could you survive without gas stations, cell phones, computers, grocery stores, and a freezer or fridge or oven or washer and dryer etc -- for two whole years?
- hattmall 3y ago
  WHy would we need the entire grid to be back up to not starve though. Obviously we would prioritize things and critical infrastructure would be first. What would actually be damaged though. WOuld an individual generator, batteries, actual appliances? Is it just transformers on the grid. Are the wires still good. Also would it hit the entire world, or just the side that was facing the sun at the peak or something?

ianburrell 3y ago

Vehicles, data centers, and electronics would be untouched. Solar storm induces currents in long conductors like electrical grid and internet cables. Internet cables being problem is a new thing; I'm sort of surprised since I would expect water and earth to protect them. The big danger is that it will destroy a lot of transformers and those are hard to replace. My impression is that it is relatively easy to protect the electrical grid by grounding everything. Also, Carrington event is predictable once the flare happens. The electrical grid can be shut down, and shouldn't be damaged much when shut down. Doing the cold start would be a challenge. As would be making the decision to shut down the grid.