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> I didn't think a Russia Ukraine conflict was going to happen until troop buildups were on satellite imagery. I still can't believe this, even locals didn't t

> I didn't think a Russia Ukraine conflict was going to happen until troop buildups were on satellite imagery. I still can't believe this, even locals didn't take it serious when Russia put troops on the border of Belarus in the late Spring and early Summer when Isreal and Palestein where bombing eaching other so it loss the covers. I was in Ukraine in the Fall, during the Belarusian and Polish proxy war and crossed the border and even the Polish President felt it was very likely to lead to escalation. It was so surreal, and I cannot explain it, but it was almost overnight how the sentiment changed when that happened in W. Ukraine. I'm not a sage at these things, but most don't realize that after large economic catastrophes (like COVID was) that nation's are prone to go to senseless wrs in order to keep their imaginary bookkeeping afloat. Russia threw the entire sink at this in order to justify it, from nazi pedophiles to liberation etc... and most Russians (barring the short lived protests and subsequent exodus) just went along with it--I should note that WMD-fevor took the US and led it down a long road of apathy as well. Still, it was more sureal what happened after the invasion; lots of Europe just went on like it wasn't happening. People still went on vacation, races in Europe still went on etc... this was all on the backdrop of the Russians occupying and digging up Chernobyl and shelling Zaporizhzhia (Europe's largest nuclear plant). And then blew the dam and caused the largest man-made environmental disaster in living memory and the war just went on. If I'm honest, I'm still processing this and it's still utterly insanity to me that this is taking place in my Lifetime after having heard 'never again' being forced down my throat since I was a child and being told that immense sacrifice was made in Europe so this would never happen again. But in reality was inevitable because the West keeps funding these despots and allowing corps to offshore to them to labour arbitrage in the futile attempt of 'endless efficiency' or what ever BS they sell it as and then seeing the light and drafting legislation that creates windfalls for them Domestically in the end anyway. Again, it all feels Kafkaesque and I don't know how to remedy this melancholy and depressing listlessness that comes with it. Has Humanity really sunk this low?

deleted 3y ago
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qwytw 3y ago
> WMD-fevor took the US and led it down a long road of apathy as well To be fair the conventional part of the Iraq war was an overwhelming victory and even if we look at the entire period between 2003 and 2011 less than 10x American soldiers died than just Russians alone in the first year of the war in Ukraine. The number of casualties on both sides just seems inconceivable high compared to any war any(?) western power fought in since Korea. Less Americans died during the entire 15 or so years in Vietnam. During the Afghanistan war (which supposedly had a significant role in bringing the USSR down) the Soviets suffered at most half as many losses as just in a year now... Considering all of this I find the general apathy of most Russians extremely bizarre... If Russia really suffered over 250k casualties there must be several millions of people whose family members or close friends were killed during the war yet nobody seems to care that much.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > If Russia really suffered over 250k casualties there must be several millions of people whose family members or close friends were killed during the war yet nobody seems to care that much. The internal attacks on military and recruiting facilities before and especially since the mobilization order last year suggest some people care very much.
  - qwytw 3y ago
    Is there significant widescale resistance to mobilization in Russia? (not a rhetorical question, I really don't understand what's actually happening inside the country)
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      Lots of people have fled Russia ahead of the mobilization waves. It's not the same as active resistance but the effects are much the same.
      - qwytw 3y ago
        I'm not sure. I mean the USSR didn't allow people to leave that easily so by the late 80s there were plenty of those who were happy to see it go or even worked actively to dismantle it. A million or so educated/young/possibly most productive people leaving is terrible for Russia long-term but it seems that it just strengthens the regime by removing a significant source of internal opposition.
jacquesm 3y ago
I was very much concerned and acted - timely - but my concern went much further than just Ukraine, I expected a simultaneous push into the Suwalki gap and a move on Kharkiv in Ukraine. The latter happened the former - fortunately for everybody - did not. But I don't rule it out even today and with family right in there and in the Baltics it is a cause for concern on a daily basis.
brabel 3y ago
Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021, at a time when military build up was already evident and hence, the obvious consequence of refusing to negotiate would be military action. The only surprise was that they actually went ahead with what they were clearly threatening to do for months (the attack only came months after that ultimatum, in late February 2022). We keep forgetting that in the past, people also didn't go to war just because they had nothing else to do, it usually occurred because of completely irreconcilable differences. The only way this won't happen in the future is if we avoid getting to that point in the first place: there is always a point where "fight" is the only way forward, unfortunately. But with both Ukraine and Russia almost completely unwilling to back out of their respective positions, the very disagreement that started the war is going to continue and they will remain in "fight" mode... with both saying "nope" to any negotiations until one of their militaries is almost entirely obliterated and it's plain as glass that the fight cannot continue and they are forced to accept the other's conditions without restrictions. Most wars end with something in the middle - as both sides eventually realize that full victory is just not going to happen... they eventually come to a compromise! But in this case, for both sides to get to that position is likely to require huge destruction first, which we are already seeing and getting "numb" about, which is horrible of course (yes, humanity is still the same old killing machine, incapable of sorting its disagreements without shooting at each other). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_2021_ultimatum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_20...
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021 More people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum in 2008 regarding giving MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine, and when NATO complied by not doing so, just as Russia demanded, Russia immediately invaded Georgia, and once that conflict went from active to mostly frozen, immediately invaded Ukraine as soon as they again didn’t have a Russia-compliant leader. And the same people seem to forget that the ultimatum in 2021 was during the war of aggression launched in 2014, not before a conflict that started later.
  - 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

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qwytw 3y ago

> WMD-fevor took the US and led it down a long road of apathy as well To be fair the conventional part of the Iraq war was an overwhelming victory and even if we look at the entire period between 2003 and 2011 less than 10x American soldiers died than just Russians alone in the first year of the war in Ukraine. The number of casualties on both sides just seems inconceivable high compared to any war any(?) western power fought in since Korea. Less Americans died during the entire 15 or so years in Vietnam. During the Afghanistan war (which supposedly had a significant role in bringing the USSR down) the Soviets suffered at most half as many losses as just in a year now... Considering all of this I find the general apathy of most Russians extremely bizarre... If Russia really suffered over 250k casualties there must be several millions of people whose family members or close friends were killed during the war yet nobody seems to care that much.

dragonwriter 3y ago
> If Russia really suffered over 250k casualties there must be several millions of people whose family members or close friends were killed during the war yet nobody seems to care that much. The internal attacks on military and recruiting facilities before and especially since the mobilization order last year suggest some people care very much.
- qwytw 3y ago
  Is there significant widescale resistance to mobilization in Russia? (not a rhetorical question, I really don't understand what's actually happening inside the country)
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    Lots of people have fled Russia ahead of the mobilization waves. It's not the same as active resistance but the effects are much the same.
    - qwytw 3y ago
      I'm not sure. I mean the USSR didn't allow people to leave that easily so by the late 80s there were plenty of those who were happy to see it go or even worked actively to dismantle it. A million or so educated/young/possibly most productive people leaving is terrible for Russia long-term but it seems that it just strengthens the regime by removing a significant source of internal opposition.

jacquesm 3y ago

I was very much concerned and acted - timely - but my concern went much further than just Ukraine, I expected a simultaneous push into the Suwalki gap and a move on Kharkiv in Ukraine. The latter happened the former - fortunately for everybody - did not. But I don't rule it out even today and with family right in there and in the Baltics it is a cause for concern on a daily basis.

brabel 3y ago

Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021, at a time when military build up was already evident and hence, the obvious consequence of refusing to negotiate would be military action. The only surprise was that they actually went ahead with what they were clearly threatening to do for months (the attack only came months after that ultimatum, in late February 2022). We keep forgetting that in the past, people also didn't go to war just because they had nothing else to do, it usually occurred because of completely irreconcilable differences. The only way this won't happen in the future is if we avoid getting to that point in the first place: there is always a point where "fight" is the only way forward, unfortunately. But with both Ukraine and Russia almost completely unwilling to back out of their respective positions, the very disagreement that started the war is going to continue and they will remain in "fight" mode... with both saying "nope" to any negotiations until one of their militaries is almost entirely obliterated and it's plain as glass that the fight cannot continue and they are forced to accept the other's conditions without restrictions. Most wars end with something in the middle - as both sides eventually realize that full victory is just not going to happen... they eventually come to a compromise! But in this case, for both sides to get to that position is likely to require huge destruction first, which we are already seeing and getting "numb" about, which is horrible of course (yes, humanity is still the same old killing machine, incapable of sorting its disagreements without shooting at each other). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_2021_ultimatum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_20...

dragonwriter 3y ago
> Most people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum[1] in December 2021 More people forget that Russia gave NATO an ultimatum in 2008 regarding giving MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine, and when NATO complied by not doing so, just as Russia demanded, Russia immediately invaded Georgia, and once that conflict went from active to mostly frozen, immediately invaded Ukraine as soon as they again didn’t have a Russia-compliant leader. And the same people seem to forget that the ultimatum in 2021 was during the war of aggression launched in 2014, not before a conflict that started later.
- 3y ago