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Maybe its not an argument at all and someone is just pointing out statistical facts? Any inference from that statistic is entirely in your own brain, with your

Maybe its not an argument at all and someone is just pointing out statistical facts? Any inference from that statistic is entirely in your own brain, with your own thoughts, interpretations, biases, etc. I program computer chips and have a high school level of earth science under my belt so I have a hard time understanding how we extrapolate out things like 1 degree increase in temp means we're cooking the planet and there's no turning back. What I would like someone to explain is how our 200-300 years of measuring things can be extrapolated out to have any certainty around future or past events. I (and I assume others) aren't asking to "smokebomb a conversation". I genuinely see headlines and understand we haven't been taking measurements for very long in comparison to Earth being here, and actually wonder these things. I would love to read thru something that presents it all in layman's terms (with references) that can describe how we arrive at any conclusions. I'm not denying that the temperature is increasing or that humans have a detrimental effect on the atmosphere. When I read mainstream media "reporting" on things I am knowledgeable about they get lots of details wrong and often come to wrong conclusions. Knowing that, I'm more like a 5 year old that keeps asking "how do you know that? / why?" Thanks for reading thru my brain dump.

shortcake27 3y ago
> I have a hard time understanding how we extrapolate out things like 1 degree increase in temp means we're cooking the planet and there's no turning back. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climat... Although I don’t believe you’ve never heard of runaway. It’s not as if this is some niche argument; it’s a well-understood mechanic that underpins most arguments about climate change. If this is new to you, I daresay you’ve been wearing some extremely heavy duty blinkers.
tfourb 3y ago
The last ice age had average global temperatures that were about 6-8 degrees (centigrade) lower (if I remember correctly) than global temperatures in the 19th century. Large parts of Europe, Asia and North America were under a permanent ice shield during that time, flora and fauna looked dramatically different. Currently, global temperatures are 1-1.5 degrees higher than in the 19th century. This is already a massive shift that comes with severe consequences. Temperatures will rise further even under best case scenarios and if we do not curtail CO2 emissions radically, we will see temperatures rise to +2 degrees and more. Not sure about you but I’d rather not find out what”a third of an ice age but hot “ looks like.

shortcake27 3y ago

> I have a hard time understanding how we extrapolate out things like 1 degree increase in temp means we're cooking the planet and there's no turning back. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climat... Although I don’t believe you’ve never heard of runaway. It’s not as if this is some niche argument; it’s a well-understood mechanic that underpins most arguments about climate change. If this is new to you, I daresay you’ve been wearing some extremely heavy duty blinkers.

tfourb 3y ago

The last ice age had average global temperatures that were about 6-8 degrees (centigrade) lower (if I remember correctly) than global temperatures in the 19th century. Large parts of Europe, Asia and North America were under a permanent ice shield during that time, flora and fauna looked dramatically different. Currently, global temperatures are 1-1.5 degrees higher than in the 19th century. This is already a massive shift that comes with severe consequences. Temperatures will rise further even under best case scenarios and if we do not curtail CO2 emissions radically, we will see temperatures rise to +2 degrees and more. Not sure about you but I’d rather not find out what”a third of an ice age but hot “ looks like.