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He can be wrong on the timing but right on the prediction. I think he could still be right here in 2024. Certainly he was right about inflation peaking. So now
by slashdev 3y ago
He can be wrong on the timing but right on the prediction. I think he could still be right here in 2024. Certainly he was right about inflation peaking. So now is that recession still to come or not?
- dragonwriter 3y ago> He can be wrong on the timing but right on the prediction. The prediction, stripped of timing, is nothing. “Someday, there will be a market crash” is almost certainly true, but means nothing.
- slashdev 3y agoThere’s obviously a middle ground between the two extremes, where the prediction would still be significant.
- projektfu 3y agoWith options, timing is essential.
- slashdev 3y agoYes. Although short options aren’t reported. People are assuming this is a bet against the markets, when it could even be a bull put spread betting the markets go up or sideways.
- grouchomarx 3y agoTiming is the whole thing though really
- once_inc 3y agoHe was wrong on the timing in 2007 as well. The only reason his short position was vindicated is that he held on despite the protests of his investors. Burry would have been rekt if the collapse had come later.
- slashdev 3y agoHe’s famously too early, but often right that something was coming. Timing the markets is pretty much impossible, even for the experts.