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FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy. His reasoning is that the regional banks a

FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy. His reasoning is that the regional banks are being extremely tight with lending right now, and by the fourth quarter many small/medium businesses will have trouble staying afloat due to the lack of financing.

ivalm 3y ago
But are small businesses that important at this point?
- thefourthchime 3y ago
  They employ about half the jobs in America, so yeah.
  - weard_beard 3y ago
    but are the jobs and people who work them that important? that's like, 1/5 of the annual salaries on wallstreet.
    - piva00 3y ago
      Yes, of course it's important, they're people for fucks sake, with lives and salaries for expenses that move the economy. What does it matter it's 1/5 of Wall Street salaries? Even worse, saying they aren't "important" because of how much they earn, I feel disgusted reading this comment...
      - weard_beard 3y ago
        Perhaps they can eat their many many children…
        piva00 3y ago
        I really have no idea if you were sarcastic on the previous comment and on this one or if you are just a gaping asshole. Either way it's not really conducive to any discussion.
        weard_beard 3y ago
        I am DEFINITELY being sarcastic! That last one was the most famous piece of sarcasm ever written, "A modest proposal" by Dr. Jonathan Swift! I can understand the limits of text to convey subtle meaning but if you're that far removed from culture that you cannot pick up when someone... I am loathe to say "alludes" (more like beats you over the head) to the most famous piece of satire in all of history then maybe you should consider getting off the internet and picking up a book.
        piva00 3y ago
        I'm not English nor Irish (or from any anglo-saxon-adjacent place) to have Jonathan Swift as any important part of my cultural-literary canon, so excuse the ignorance but at the same time fuck you for telling me to "pick up a book" as if I should have known your cultural references :) (And yes, the "fuck you" is in jest, I'm still astounded [and a bit ashamed] I didn't pick up the sarcasm at first...) Sorry.
        weard_beard 3y ago
        Touché. If you wouldn't mind sharing where you're from and what you consider a good example of satire in your region I will take my own advice :-)
flaboonka 3y ago
I have been watching for that as well, but as of yet there is no sign of it in the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index [1]. Financial conditions are continuing to slowly loosen. But things can change quickly. [1] https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
the_only_law 3y ago
A lot of the small businesses near me are already collapsing, though it seems a lot of that is delayed downfall from Covid.
- deadeye 3y ago
  Where is that? There are lots of regional issues.
goodbyesf 3y ago
> FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy. Highly regarded finance guys aren't podcasters or media personalities. If the guy could predict the direction of the economy, he'd be a trillionaire living his best life. Not peddling silly books and hosting podcasts. But then again, jim cramer has a following. How do explain that other than the masses are naive. > His reasoning is that the regional banks are being extremely tight with lending right now, and by the fourth quarter many small/medium businesses will have trouble staying afloat due to the lack of financing. He is just parroting nonsense he saw on cnbc or read in a newspaper or on social media. Just like every grifter out there. Do you really think he has inside connections to all the regional banks? To the FED?
- thefourthchime 3y ago
  Fair, he is a media personality. That said, I've read a Jim Cramer book, I've listened to Dave Ramsey. Those guys are charlatans selling mysterious wisdom and, frankly, bullshit. Clark Howard doesn't do any of that. Dave Ramsey once said anyone should be able to get a 12% return in a mutual fund. What?? Jim Cramer's constantly picking stocks and is about as good as a drunk monkey with a dartboard. Everything Clark Howard has said that I've looked at doing, I've vetted and researched. Sometimes he gets it wrong, but I believe he is an honest actor and just trying to help people "Save money, Spend less, and avoid getting ripped off." Honestly, nobody knows, but I put more weight on his take than most.
gymbeaux 3y ago
It’s already well-known that interest rate changes take a while (months? A year?) to effect the economy. It’s also well-known that higher interest rates hurt startups, “pre-revenue” companies, consumer buying power, etc. So to be bearish right now seems like a no-brainer.

ivalm 3y ago

But are small businesses that important at this point?

thefourthchime 3y ago
They employ about half the jobs in America, so yeah.
- weard_beard 3y ago
  but are the jobs and people who work them that important? that's like, 1/5 of the annual salaries on wallstreet.
  - piva00 3y ago
    Yes, of course it's important, they're people for fucks sake, with lives and salaries for expenses that move the economy. What does it matter it's 1/5 of Wall Street salaries? Even worse, saying they aren't "important" because of how much they earn, I feel disgusted reading this comment...
    - weard_beard 3y ago
      Perhaps they can eat their many many children…
      - piva00 3y ago
        I really have no idea if you were sarcastic on the previous comment and on this one or if you are just a gaping asshole. Either way it's not really conducive to any discussion.
        weard_beard 3y ago
        I am DEFINITELY being sarcastic! That last one was the most famous piece of sarcasm ever written, "A modest proposal" by Dr. Jonathan Swift! I can understand the limits of text to convey subtle meaning but if you're that far removed from culture that you cannot pick up when someone... I am loathe to say "alludes" (more like beats you over the head) to the most famous piece of satire in all of history then maybe you should consider getting off the internet and picking up a book.
        piva00 3y ago
        I'm not English nor Irish (or from any anglo-saxon-adjacent place) to have Jonathan Swift as any important part of my cultural-literary canon, so excuse the ignorance but at the same time fuck you for telling me to "pick up a book" as if I should have known your cultural references :) (And yes, the "fuck you" is in jest, I'm still astounded [and a bit ashamed] I didn't pick up the sarcasm at first...) Sorry.
        weard_beard 3y ago
        Touché. If you wouldn't mind sharing where you're from and what you consider a good example of satire in your region I will take my own advice :-)

flaboonka 3y ago

I have been watching for that as well, but as of yet there is no sign of it in the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index [1]. Financial conditions are continuing to slowly loosen. But things can change quickly. [1] https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data

the_only_law 3y ago

A lot of the small businesses near me are already collapsing, though it seems a lot of that is delayed downfall from Covid.

deadeye 3y ago
Where is that? There are lots of regional issues.

goodbyesf 3y ago

> FWIW: Clark Howard, a finance guy I highly regard, predicts that the 4th quarter will see a softening of the economy. Highly regarded finance guys aren't podcasters or media personalities. If the guy could predict the direction of the economy, he'd be a trillionaire living his best life. Not peddling silly books and hosting podcasts. But then again, jim cramer has a following. How do explain that other than the masses are naive. > His reasoning is that the regional banks are being extremely tight with lending right now, and by the fourth quarter many small/medium businesses will have trouble staying afloat due to the lack of financing. He is just parroting nonsense he saw on cnbc or read in a newspaper or on social media. Just like every grifter out there. Do you really think he has inside connections to all the regional banks? To the FED?

thefourthchime 3y ago
Fair, he is a media personality. That said, I've read a Jim Cramer book, I've listened to Dave Ramsey. Those guys are charlatans selling mysterious wisdom and, frankly, bullshit. Clark Howard doesn't do any of that. Dave Ramsey once said anyone should be able to get a 12% return in a mutual fund. What?? Jim Cramer's constantly picking stocks and is about as good as a drunk monkey with a dartboard. Everything Clark Howard has said that I've looked at doing, I've vetted and researched. Sometimes he gets it wrong, but I believe he is an honest actor and just trying to help people "Save money, Spend less, and avoid getting ripped off." Honestly, nobody knows, but I put more weight on his take than most.

gymbeaux 3y ago

It’s already well-known that interest rate changes take a while (months? A year?) to effect the economy. It’s also well-known that higher interest rates hurt startups, “pre-revenue” companies, consumer buying power, etc. So to be bearish right now seems like a no-brainer.