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IIT denial. This is literally simple case of aggregate GDP projection of PRC ~5% > US ~2% that comments in this thread seem to be butt hurt over. PRC with defla
by dirtyid 3y ago
IIT denial. This is literally simple case of aggregate GDP projection of PRC ~5% > US ~2% that comments in this thread seem to be butt hurt over. PRC with deflation, export pressures, debt, deflation, youth unemployment IS STILL doing significantly better than US because they aren't the existential problems PRC collapcists make them out to be.
PRC isn't an export dependant country at 20% export:GDP (dependant would be 40%+, PRC peak was 32%), while export dropping from historic highs (+1T in export value in last 4 years / +30%, more than 10 years prior to that) aka PRC underwent the largest pulse of globalization in recent history and export is dropping from absurd historic highs - and PRC retaining more % of exports relative to most, while not even relying on it.
PRC national debt is ~75% of GDP vs US ~120%, total aggregate debt PRC ~270% vs US ~760%. It's significantly more managable problem than US, who let's not forget just printed 5 trillion to deficit spend way out of recession.
There's good deflation and bad deflation. Arguable PRC is good deflation, because it's mostly cost of goods coming down due to excess supply from largest global manufacturer having excess inventory.
Youth unemployment = 80%, AKA ~9M graduates getting employed. Many STEM/skilled/technical. That's a absurd amount of new jobs and talent to drive economy. Multiple times more than US. Broad unemployment also ~5%, so it's an issue that literally fixes it self, kids wait, either get jobs they want or end up working ones they don't.
And PRC doing this while _DELIBERATELY_ slapping local govs, and three redlines on real-estate and broadly deleverage. Useful idiots misread PRC responsibly rebalancing economy as PRC economic collapse, and then pikachu face when PRC still grows at 2x US, because all of these are largely managable problems that PRC has economic headroom to manage and still grow at respectable pace.