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I don’t think we’re in an AI bubble. AI has hardly any penetration into society. If you compare with smartphones then we are pretty much in the late 1980s bric
by zarzavat 3y ago
I don’t think we’re in an AI bubble. AI has hardly any penetration into society.
If you compare with smartphones then we are pretty much in the late 1980s brick phone era where the technology is just starting to be adopted by society.
The key technology, AGI, has not even been invented yet. It’s possible we may see a mini bubble if AGI takes a while to be developed, but I think it’s more likely that we won’t because even the current generation of AI has a lot further to run.
- JimtheCoder 3y ago"AI has hardly any penetration into society." To clarify, I assume you are talking about Gen AI when you say "AI"?
- oceanplexian 3y agoI think penetration into society is a really nebulous statement. It’s possible AI (Even Generative AI) will penetrate society long before we know about it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me that Wall Street is already using it to trade some non-insignificant fraction of the US economy. Similar to how Linux is probably holding modern civilization together behind the scenes but most people are completely oblivious.
- zarzavat 3y agoSorry yes, I meant generative AI since we were talking about a “bubble”. Obviously there are other forms of AI that are more mature and deployed, but that’s not what the hype is about.
- robotresearcher 3y ago> AI has hardly any penetration into society. > If you compare with smartphones Every smartphone runs multiple AI systems in it. Some are used multiple times a day, most just working and keeping out of your way. Unless you exclude from AI the stuff we used to call AI until it started working really well.
- PartiallyTyped 3y agoIf you have an iphone, you can open your images and search for cat / dog and the program will just show relevant pics of cats and dogs. It also searches in text inside of said images.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Nullabillity 3y agoExcept for the half the time that it can't even guess the location from the already-embedded GPS data.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- berniedurfee 3y agoI don’t think generative AI is a stepping stone to AGI. I think they’re quite different. I understand generative AI as a million monkeys on a million typewriters, but we figured out how to rig the typewriters to generate convincing and sometimes correct output. Neither monkeys individually or collectively understand anything about how they responded. They just get a treat for doing well. AGI is something very different IMO. Language and speech will be emergent in AGI without requiring massive inputs, like how a child learns. LLMs seem like sort of a (very impressive) parlor trick. Neat, useful and terrifying, but not a pathway to AGI.
- paxcoder 3y ago[dead]
- nextaccountic 3y ago> If you compare with smartphones then we are pretty much in the late 1980s brick phone era where the technology is just starting to be adopted by society. ChatGPT was the largest growing site in the history of the Internet, reaching 100 millions users in two months. This seems more than 1980 brick phones
- gmerc 3y agoHow much of that is a function of distributed and hype infrastructures being in place though. It’s disingenuous comparing the way Facebook scaled to ChatGPT which scales primarily along social media vectors with massive distribution.