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Yes, there are a lot of conspiracies, but "Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead;" so if a conspiracy involves enough actors, it is unlikely that it

Yes, there are a lot of conspiracies, but "Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead;" so if a conspiracy involves enough actors, it is unlikely that it will be kept secret from the public except from some lunatic fringe.

Loquebantur 3y ago
This is a common misconception. The US system of state secrets for example is enormous, and while leaks do occur, they are negligible compared to what is kept hidden. There are multiple tricks employable, one is to keep any single collaborator in the dark aboout most of the conspiracy. That way, any single leak is manageable. Your conviction of believing conspiracies to be unrealistic is common and helps conspirators a lot. It disincentivises whistleblowers in particular.
- lern_too_spel 3y ago
  > The US system of state secrets for example is enormous, and while leaks do occur, they are negligible compared to what is kept hidden. Not from those whose job it is to find them. The Manhattan Project leaked to the Soviets multiple times over. Any time the government does something illegal, a whistleblower has leaked it to reporters.
K0balt 3y ago
This is a common trope paraded by conspiracy perpetrators. “Do you really think we could keep something like that secret?” Also, it doesn’t have to be secret to be a conspiracy. Fossil fuel companies more or less openly conspired to obfuscate, deny, discredit, and discourage evidence from their own scientists and the scientific community at large that fossil fuel use could cause significant heating and possible thermal runaway of the planetary climate for over 70 years in order to continue to exploit fossil fuels which they knew to pose a threat to human civilisation as a whole. Cigarette companies acted similarly. Automotive companies have done similar things many times over. Naively believing that collective human incompetence makes effective obfuscation impossible ignores a great many examples of successful collusion and implies a very naive optimism about the information dissemination mechanisms within society. It is more plausible that collective human incompetence makes perfect secrecy unnecessary.
- lern_too_spel 3y ago
  > Fossil fuel companies... And we know about it. The documents were leaked and uncovered by lawsuits. > Cigarette companies acted similarly And again, we know about it. > Naively believing that collective human incompetence makes effective obfuscation impossible ignores a great many examples of successful collusion Where? It's not incompetence. Every actor is facing a prisoner's dilemma, and at least one will act rationally and squeal on the rest.

Loquebantur 3y ago

This is a common misconception. The US system of state secrets for example is enormous, and while leaks do occur, they are negligible compared to what is kept hidden. There are multiple tricks employable, one is to keep any single collaborator in the dark aboout most of the conspiracy. That way, any single leak is manageable. Your conviction of believing conspiracies to be unrealistic is common and helps conspirators a lot. It disincentivises whistleblowers in particular.

lern_too_spel 3y ago
> The US system of state secrets for example is enormous, and while leaks do occur, they are negligible compared to what is kept hidden. Not from those whose job it is to find them. The Manhattan Project leaked to the Soviets multiple times over. Any time the government does something illegal, a whistleblower has leaked it to reporters.

K0balt 3y ago

This is a common trope paraded by conspiracy perpetrators. “Do you really think we could keep something like that secret?” Also, it doesn’t have to be secret to be a conspiracy. Fossil fuel companies more or less openly conspired to obfuscate, deny, discredit, and discourage evidence from their own scientists and the scientific community at large that fossil fuel use could cause significant heating and possible thermal runaway of the planetary climate for over 70 years in order to continue to exploit fossil fuels which they knew to pose a threat to human civilisation as a whole. Cigarette companies acted similarly. Automotive companies have done similar things many times over. Naively believing that collective human incompetence makes effective obfuscation impossible ignores a great many examples of successful collusion and implies a very naive optimism about the information dissemination mechanisms within society. It is more plausible that collective human incompetence makes perfect secrecy unnecessary.

lern_too_spel 3y ago
> Fossil fuel companies... And we know about it. The documents were leaked and uncovered by lawsuits. > Cigarette companies acted similarly And again, we know about it. > Naively believing that collective human incompetence makes effective obfuscation impossible ignores a great many examples of successful collusion Where? It's not incompetence. Every actor is facing a prisoner's dilemma, and at least one will act rationally and squeal on the rest.