That very much depends on the source. Look at our world in data’s formula [1], and you will see it does take into account that 2020 won’t have the same death as

That very much depends on the source. Look at our world in data’s formula [1], and you will see it does take into account that 2020 won’t have the same death as 2019, by using a linear model with previous years. Sure, there might be a sudden and expected increase in population growth (and especially in the 70+ people), but one would have to have to explain how that happened… [1] https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid#what-is-excess-mortality https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid#what-is-ex...