4 ms·

> Why do you believe this would happen, given that internal migration between rich and poor parts of counties without internal travel restrictions is nowhere ne

by badpun 3y ago

> Why do you believe this would happen, given that internal migration between rich and poor parts of counties without internal travel restrictions is nowhere near that significant? Because quality of life in Detroit is miles ahead quality of life in Nigeria, Gabon, rural Russia and countless other poor places with no good opportunities.

ben_w 3y ago
That doesn't seem like a sufficient reason; if we were really just Homo Economicus then any opportunity should have us move to the best opportunities when we can. I posit that we don't because humans are not primarily focusing on economic opportunities, but rather on social ones. That's certainly why my relatives have so many Philippine in-laws back in the UK: they all wanted to be with each other when they moved. Know what's really hard to do when you move? Social opportunities. Especially when you have to… использовать другой язык. Likewise from Gabon: Le français est romantique et tout, mais pas beaucoup d'opportunités aux États-Unis si vous êtes du Gabon et c'est tout ce avec quoi vous avez grandi grâce au colonialisme. Canada might have Francophone job opportunities, but I can't imagine Quebec being much fun to move to if you're used to the sub-Saharan climate.
- qwytw 3y ago
  Saying that entire populations would move move is course a huge exaggeration. Especially because after 30-40% leave the people remaining would have access to more resources, land etc. which would make emigration less appealing. However 214 million people live in Nigeria alone. If all of them had the right to move to Europe it would not at all be unreasonable that say 30-50 million would do that (just look at what happened in the Eastern European countries which joined the EU in 2004 and the disparity between those countries and WE wasn't even close to being as big as between Nigeria and the richer EU countries today). That's just one country. I would say that 100-200 million Africans moving into the EU over say 10 years if they could would be a pretty conservative estimate. Only around 450 million people live in the European Union and relatively few immigrants would probably move to Eastern Poland or Bulgaria so the immigrants would be concentrated in a few areas where they would quickly outnumber the local population. > because humans are not primarily focusing on economic opportunities I don't think this is true at all in general, especially longterm. > but I can't imagine Quebec being much fun to move to if you're used to the sub-Saharan climate. Have you heard about a country called Sweden? It's cold, dark and damp..
  - ben_w 3y ago
    > Have you heard about a country called Sweden? It's cold, dark and damp.. and has a national population of two Berlins or half a Lagos, and a total (from everywhere including the EU) net immigration level of [edit: was "about half a million, or 5%." but I now have conflicting citations…]
    - qwytw 3y ago
      Yes. About 2 million people more than Quebec. And African people don't seem to mind moving there despite the weather. And even in Quebec, 3% or so of the all the people living there were born in Africa, the Middle East or the Caribbean. So they don't seem to mind the weather that much... > [edit: was "about half a million, or 5%." but I now have conflicting citations…] > Sweden, 2,752,572 (26%) inhabitants of Sweden were of a foreign background in 2021, defined as being born abroad or born in Sweden with both foreign-born parents.[290] Of these inhabitants, 2,090,503 persons were born abroad and 662,069 persons were born in Sweden to parents born abroad. In addition, 805,340 persons had one parent born abroad with the other parent born in Sweden.[290] So ~18.8% of people living in Sweden haven't been born in Sweden. About 2.2% of people in Sweden were born in Africa. Which is quite high for a a non colonial country. And I'm pretty sure you could rustle up another 10 million or so people throughout Africa who wouldn't at all mind moving to Sweden..

by badpun 3y ago

ben_w 3y ago

That doesn't seem like a sufficient reason; if we were really just Homo Economicus then any opportunity should have us move to the best opportunities when we can. I posit that we don't because humans are not primarily focusing on economic opportunities, but rather on social ones. That's certainly why my relatives have so many Philippine in-laws back in the UK: they all wanted to be with each other when they moved. Know what's really hard to do when you move? Social opportunities. Especially when you have to… использовать другой язык. Likewise from Gabon: Le français est romantique et tout, mais pas beaucoup d'opportunités aux États-Unis si vous êtes du Gabon et c'est tout ce avec quoi vous avez grandi grâce au colonialisme. Canada might have Francophone job opportunities, but I can't imagine Quebec being much fun to move to if you're used to the sub-Saharan climate.

qwytw 3y ago
Saying that entire populations would move move is course a huge exaggeration. Especially because after 30-40% leave the people remaining would have access to more resources, land etc. which would make emigration less appealing. However 214 million people live in Nigeria alone. If all of them had the right to move to Europe it would not at all be unreasonable that say 30-50 million would do that (just look at what happened in the Eastern European countries which joined the EU in 2004 and the disparity between those countries and WE wasn't even close to being as big as between Nigeria and the richer EU countries today). That's just one country. I would say that 100-200 million Africans moving into the EU over say 10 years if they could would be a pretty conservative estimate. Only around 450 million people live in the European Union and relatively few immigrants would probably move to Eastern Poland or Bulgaria so the immigrants would be concentrated in a few areas where they would quickly outnumber the local population. > because humans are not primarily focusing on economic opportunities I don't think this is true at all in general, especially longterm. > but I can't imagine Quebec being much fun to move to if you're used to the sub-Saharan climate. Have you heard about a country called Sweden? It's cold, dark and damp..
- ben_w 3y ago
  > Have you heard about a country called Sweden? It's cold, dark and damp.. and has a national population of two Berlins or half a Lagos, and a total (from everywhere including the EU) net immigration level of [edit: was "about half a million, or 5%." but I now have conflicting citations…]
  - qwytw 3y ago
    Yes. About 2 million people more than Quebec. And African people don't seem to mind moving there despite the weather. And even in Quebec, 3% or so of the all the people living there were born in Africa, the Middle East or the Caribbean. So they don't seem to mind the weather that much... > [edit: was "about half a million, or 5%." but I now have conflicting citations…] > Sweden, 2,752,572 (26%) inhabitants of Sweden were of a foreign background in 2021, defined as being born abroad or born in Sweden with both foreign-born parents.[290] Of these inhabitants, 2,090,503 persons were born abroad and 662,069 persons were born in Sweden to parents born abroad. In addition, 805,340 persons had one parent born abroad with the other parent born in Sweden.[290] So ~18.8% of people living in Sweden haven't been born in Sweden. About 2.2% of people in Sweden were born in Africa. Which is quite high for a a non colonial country. And I'm pretty sure you could rustle up another 10 million or so people throughout Africa who wouldn't at all mind moving to Sweden..