5 ms·

All of the doomsayers are once in a while right..

• PartiallyTyped 3y ago
  Bears predicted 21 of the last 3 recessions; and if you tail a car for 500 miles you will give it a ticket.
• thih9 3y ago
  But does it happen in a statistically significant way?
  • H8crilA 3y ago
    2s-10s is remarkably accurate for predicting recessions. For returns over 10 years or so CAPE is quite good, stocks/(stocks+bonds+cash) is very good. But you cannot make statistical claims about such numbers, the calculations are done over the entire very small population (if you want to abuse the maths a bit and call a time series a population), not over a sample.
• ProjectArcturis 3y ago
  There is very little difference between being early and being wrong.