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> I look forward to a day where driverless taxis become cheap enough (due to lack of having to pay someone, and supply and demand) Going by previous history, t

> I look forward to a day where driverless taxis become cheap enough (due to lack of having to pay someone, and supply and demand) Going by previous history, this is unlikely to happen. The companies seek profit and will simply pocket the margins instead of passing them on.

dventimi 3y ago
Then customers will choose their cheaper competitors.
- tjoff 3y ago
  You assume there will be competitors.
  - robbrown451 3y ago
    Why wouldn't there be?
    - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
      Because there won't be and it's naive to think otherwise. The tech isn't open source, the hardware is expensive, and then there's the massive regulatory over head to get these into the road. You'd be better off hoping for your personal car to be autonomous so it can come pick you up and that's assuming personal cars remain affordable enough.
      - dventimi 3y ago
        > the tech isn't open source Neither was automobile tech a hundred years ago yet somehow GM and Chrysler managed to put up a fight against Ford > the hardware is expensive...and then there's the massive regulatory over head Sure. It's expensive and not easy, and yet already a few companies are trying. Evidently they view the potential upside as worth it. Turns out, they don't have a monopoly on that view.
        freitzkriesler2 3y ago
        That's a really bad false equivalence. It doesn't take a lot of effort to reverse engineer mechanical parts and by that time the early automobile patents long expired. It doesn't take a mechanical engineer much effort to recreate parts from patent documents. Also Ford didn't invent the automobile, Karl Benz did. Now try and reverse engineer the black box algorithms necessary to make a self driving car. See the same efforts involved in reverse engineering other proprietary closed source products. Now good luck getting the NHTSA to approve those to drive those on the road.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > It doesn't take a lot of effort to reverse engineer mechanical parts Internal combustion engines are ridiculously complicated. Modern engines directly trace lineage to their manufacturers’ founding. Major engine differences continue to define the automotive field.
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        dventimi 3y ago
        > It doesn't take a lot of effort to reverse engineer mechanical parts Have you personally ever reverse-engineered an internal combustion engine or recreated parts from a patent document?
  - dventimi 3y ago
    I don't have to assume there will be competitors because I know that there already are competitors.
robbrown451 3y ago
So.... supply and demand doesn't work? Why is this field immune to normal market economics?
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
Waymo is already $5/ride, no tip, in Phoenix. That’s cheaper than an Uber and competitive with public transport.
- rideontime 3y ago
  "Already" betrays a misunderstanding of how this process works. Fares are likely to increase, not decrease.
  - dventimi 3y ago
    Nobody can predict the future, not even you.

dventimi 3y ago

Then customers will choose their cheaper competitors.

tjoff 3y ago
You assume there will be competitors.
- robbrown451 3y ago
  Why wouldn't there be?
  - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
    Because there won't be and it's naive to think otherwise. The tech isn't open source, the hardware is expensive, and then there's the massive regulatory over head to get these into the road. You'd be better off hoping for your personal car to be autonomous so it can come pick you up and that's assuming personal cars remain affordable enough.
    - dventimi 3y ago
      > the tech isn't open source Neither was automobile tech a hundred years ago yet somehow GM and Chrysler managed to put up a fight against Ford > the hardware is expensive...and then there's the massive regulatory over head Sure. It's expensive and not easy, and yet already a few companies are trying. Evidently they view the potential upside as worth it. Turns out, they don't have a monopoly on that view.
      - freitzkriesler2 3y ago
        That's a really bad false equivalence. It doesn't take a lot of effort to reverse engineer mechanical parts and by that time the early automobile patents long expired. It doesn't take a mechanical engineer much effort to recreate parts from patent documents. Also Ford didn't invent the automobile, Karl Benz did. Now try and reverse engineer the black box algorithms necessary to make a self driving car. See the same efforts involved in reverse engineering other proprietary closed source products. Now good luck getting the NHTSA to approve those to drive those on the road.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > It doesn't take a lot of effort to reverse engineer mechanical parts Internal combustion engines are ridiculously complicated. Modern engines directly trace lineage to their manufacturers’ founding. Major engine differences continue to define the automotive field.
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        dventimi 3y ago
        > It doesn't take a lot of effort to reverse engineer mechanical parts Have you personally ever reverse-engineered an internal combustion engine or recreated parts from a patent document?
- dventimi 3y ago
  I don't have to assume there will be competitors because I know that there already are competitors.

robbrown451 3y ago

So.... supply and demand doesn't work? Why is this field immune to normal market economics?

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

Waymo is already $5/ride, no tip, in Phoenix. That’s cheaper than an Uber and competitive with public transport.

rideontime 3y ago
"Already" betrays a misunderstanding of how this process works. Fares are likely to increase, not decrease.
- dventimi 3y ago
  Nobody can predict the future, not even you.