He's assuming transistors got 100x more efficient in 13 years, but they just haven't. CPUs of similar architectures got about 5x more efficient in the very best

He's assuming transistors got 100x more efficient in 13 years, but they just haven't. CPUs of similar architectures got about 5x more efficient in the very best case (embarrassingly parallel workload where advances in core count and instructions level parallelism means effectively lower switching rates). For GPUs it's a similar story - a 780Ti does 5.5Tflops@250W, a 4080Ti does 66Tflops@400W, for a 7.5x increase. Certainly not 100x, and again a lot of that is from much much more efficient GPGPU architectures. TSMC themselves claim ~30-40% improvements on transistor efficiency every generation these days, which fits nicely with a 4-5x improvement. Manually multiplying their claims in efficiency, you get a 4.85x improvement from 28nm to 3nm. I think we'll be hitting the limits of what silicon can do 3-4 orders of magnitude before Landauer's limit.