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(apologies for the small tangential rant; it's a topic I care about :) I have seen this view towards luck a few times — some variant of "make your own luck" or

(apologies for the small tangential rant; it's a topic I care about :) I have seen this view towards luck a few times — some variant of "make your own luck" or "put yourself in situations where you're more likely to be lucky", and similar. I don't object to it by itself, but there's a subtlety that is often missed: it only applies to yourself, not other people. Or perhaps more accurately: it only applies to your choice of action, not evaluating others' results. The reason I have misgivings is because I have seen it used as a cudgel; someone fails, and a person with this mindset is more prone to rationalize it, saying "oh, they didn't try hard enough" or "it was their own fault, they should be smarter about it." No. No matter how hard a person tries, they can still fail, and it may not be their fault at all. At least when it's your own self, you have more information to know if you could have done better. When it's directed at others, it's extremely dicey to make those judgements. Someone more in tune with the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune might be more inclined to actually help that person, rather than blaming them for things outside of their control. It's tricky, because the "try harder next time" whip is useful, to be sure, but it also can be an enemy of empathy.

WalterBright 3y ago
> they can still fail Of course. I never wrote otherwise. Many successful people I know failed multiple times. > "it was their own fault, they should be smarter about it." The successful people I know who failed multiple times and eventually succeeded all blamed themselves for the failures, with "I should have been smarter about it". The great thing about taking responsibility for one's failures is it is empowering - it means you can succeed by learning why one failed and doing it better next time. You could consider it like airliners. Crashes are not attributed to "bad luck". The cause is always searched for, and once found, it gets fixed. Over time, this has resulted in incredibly safe airliners. Do you really expect to successfully ride a bike the first time you swing your leg over the seat? Nope. You fall off, get back on, fall off, get back on, fall off, get back on, hey! I'm riding!
- oefnak 3y ago
  What if you're born in a poor country? Just keep trying?
  - WalterBright 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - chefandy 3y ago
      Where you are born is a matter of luck, and not just in governance. You can directly correlate success in the US to the zip code you were born into. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/learning/how-much-has-your-zip-code-determined-your-opportunities.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/learning/how-much-has-you...
      - WalterBright 3y ago
        Fortunately, you can move to whatever zip code you like.
        Niksko 3y ago
        Unfortunately, that's not how it works. a) no you can't just decide to go and live in any postcode you want, you need to be able to afford the cost of living there, and b) the study is about where you're born, not just where you end up.
        WalterBright 3y ago
        > no you can't just decide to go and live in any postcode you want, Yeah, you can. > you need to be able to afford the cost of living there More affluent places hire maids, gardeners, handymen, drivers, etc. The even wealthier ones have places for them to live on the premises. In Seattle, of course, they just pitch a tent on the street or live in their cars. This thread reminds me of: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA
- seabass-labrax 3y ago
  I learnt to ride with extra wheels attached to the side of the bicycle, and as a result, I almost never fell during that learning process. Translating the analogy back, what you describe is the entrepreneurial fail-until-you-win method. The alternative method of progression is that of apprenticeship or gradual promotion, which in my country is associated with traditionally middle-class professions like finance, medicine and law. In such a conventional career, success is almost guaranteed, as the number of people entering the profession is very close to the number retiring out of it, and the assumption is that, because the endeavour has always been profitable, it will be for you too. Ideally, the profession as a whole gradually improves under this system, but no individual member of it has to engage in any more than an average level of risk to be personally successful.
  - WalterBright 3y ago
    Yeah, well, such safe avenues don't lead to making a billion.
    - chefandy 3y ago
      And unsafe avenues aren't an option for the majority of people in the US.
      - WalterBright 3y ago
        Not buying that. America is not a nation of poor people.
        daverol 3y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States
        nickpp 3y ago
        Most of "poor people" in USA would be considered above average in other countries and continents.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  This assumes one can afford multiple failures. Being born rich buys you a lot of swings of the bat. Otherwise you can't swing big, and opportunities to connect will be fewer--if any. Rich kids can afford 'responsibility' because they have money to pay for their mistakes. Poor kids don't. Best way to be prepared for success? Be born to a rich and well connected family.
  - CMCDragonkai 3y ago
    How did their parents get rich? Was it because the grandparents was rich?
    - interroboink 3y ago
      I think in many cases when you trace it back, it comes down to ... luck (: Which is funny, since now the descendants of some lucky people get the opportunity to take lots of chances and say "look how hard work pays off — I made my own luck!" Though that's a pretty simplistic take; I feel like hard work really does pay off, broadly speaking, but also luck plays a (much) bigger role than most give it credit.
      - WalterBright 3y ago
        Luck will never find the person living in his mom's basement playing video games and griping about inequity.
        CMCDragonkai 3y ago
        I was pointing out the circular logic in these explanations. Saying someone is rich because their parents were rich (ad-infinitum) is like saying someone is lucky because they are lucky. It is not a useful explanation because you can't use this to do anything. In fact if you use this explanation to decide public policy, like say socialism, then the converse is also true, you make everybody poor, then their descendants will be poor. But obviously in our history on average, we've all been getting richer in the long run.
- interroboink 3y ago
  > they can still fail >> Of course. I never wrote otherwise. I did not mean to imply that you did (: You touched on a general topic, and I was speaking to that, more than your specific words. > successful people ... blamed themselves for the failures I'm sure that's true. But I'm trying to draw a thin, wiggly line between awareness of room for improvement (usually more on a rational level), and blame/judgement (usually more on an emotional level). The former is great, the latter not so much. I'd wager that there are also a whole lot of un-successful people who blamed themselves for their failures, even if they could do no better. People who hate themselves. People who are unhappy. My commentary is more directed at those people and those who would care about them, than the ones you mention. > taking responsibility ... you can succeed by learning This definitely straddles the wiggly line (: One one side is "taking responsibility," and on the other is "it's your fault." Certainly one should internalize the lesson. But hopefully not the shame/blame. Perhaps neither you nor your successful acquaintences suffer from this affliction, but in my experience many do. I realize that some people are lazy and looking for excuses to escape responsibility, so perhaps you see my viewpoint as somehow enabling or encouraging that bad behavior. I just want to point out that there are downsides in the other direction too, if taken to puritanical extremes. And I daresay the "being lazy is bad" side of the argument gets a whole lot more headspace in our culture than the "it's okay, there's nothing wrong with you" side. Hence my attempt to bring some balance. > You could consider it like airliners ... > ride a bike the first time ... The thing about airlines is that they operate in a very carefully crafted environment. Planes stay away from each other, are generally aware of each other (notwithstanding that friggin' biplane without a radio that cut me off on downwind... grr), have high maintenance standards, etc. etc. Real life can be much more dense/messy/fast-moving/full of unknowns, I find. You do not always get the luxury of knowing the variables involved. But the problem with both of your examples is that they assume you can learn and try again. And that's not always the case. What if you're a passenger on one of those airliners that crashes? What should you have done better, personally? Born in a poor country? Sorry, no re-try. Born with a damaged brain or body? Sorry, no re-try. Have abusive parents? Maybe a few can pull themselves out (probably mostly by luck or the help of others), but it will have lifelong effects. You get the idea. And those examples are extreme; there are myriad other "softer" struggles people have, with varying levels of control. Depression comes to mind. So, in conclusion, my whole long-winded reply is just trying to say: sometimes people (like you) express the "you have nobody to blame but yourself" attitude, with good intentions, directed at the sort of enabled people you were talking about, but it gets applied to other people, with heart-wrenching effects.

WalterBright 3y ago

> they can still fail Of course. I never wrote otherwise. Many successful people I know failed multiple times. > "it was their own fault, they should be smarter about it." The successful people I know who failed multiple times and eventually succeeded all blamed themselves for the failures, with "I should have been smarter about it". The great thing about taking responsibility for one's failures is it is empowering - it means you can succeed by learning why one failed and doing it better next time. You could consider it like airliners. Crashes are not attributed to "bad luck". The cause is always searched for, and once found, it gets fixed. Over time, this has resulted in incredibly safe airliners. Do you really expect to successfully ride a bike the first time you swing your leg over the seat? Nope. You fall off, get back on, fall off, get back on, fall off, get back on, hey! I'm riding!

oefnak 3y ago
What if you're born in a poor country? Just keep trying?
- WalterBright 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - chefandy 3y ago
    Where you are born is a matter of luck, and not just in governance. You can directly correlate success in the US to the zip code you were born into. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/learning/how-much-has-your-zip-code-determined-your-opportunities.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/learning/how-much-has-you...
    - WalterBright 3y ago
      Fortunately, you can move to whatever zip code you like.
      - Niksko 3y ago
        Unfortunately, that's not how it works. a) no you can't just decide to go and live in any postcode you want, you need to be able to afford the cost of living there, and b) the study is about where you're born, not just where you end up.
        WalterBright 3y ago
        > no you can't just decide to go and live in any postcode you want, Yeah, you can. > you need to be able to afford the cost of living there More affluent places hire maids, gardeners, handymen, drivers, etc. The even wealthier ones have places for them to live on the premises. In Seattle, of course, they just pitch a tent on the street or live in their cars. This thread reminds me of: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA
seabass-labrax 3y ago
I learnt to ride with extra wheels attached to the side of the bicycle, and as a result, I almost never fell during that learning process. Translating the analogy back, what you describe is the entrepreneurial fail-until-you-win method. The alternative method of progression is that of apprenticeship or gradual promotion, which in my country is associated with traditionally middle-class professions like finance, medicine and law. In such a conventional career, success is almost guaranteed, as the number of people entering the profession is very close to the number retiring out of it, and the assumption is that, because the endeavour has always been profitable, it will be for you too. Ideally, the profession as a whole gradually improves under this system, but no individual member of it has to engage in any more than an average level of risk to be personally successful.
- WalterBright 3y ago
  Yeah, well, such safe avenues don't lead to making a billion.
  - chefandy 3y ago
    And unsafe avenues aren't an option for the majority of people in the US.
    - WalterBright 3y ago
      Not buying that. America is not a nation of poor people.
      - daverol 3y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States
        nickpp 3y ago
        Most of "poor people" in USA would be considered above average in other countries and continents.
paulryanrogers 3y ago
This assumes one can afford multiple failures. Being born rich buys you a lot of swings of the bat. Otherwise you can't swing big, and opportunities to connect will be fewer--if any. Rich kids can afford 'responsibility' because they have money to pay for their mistakes. Poor kids don't. Best way to be prepared for success? Be born to a rich and well connected family.
- CMCDragonkai 3y ago
  How did their parents get rich? Was it because the grandparents was rich?
  - interroboink 3y ago
    I think in many cases when you trace it back, it comes down to ... luck (: Which is funny, since now the descendants of some lucky people get the opportunity to take lots of chances and say "look how hard work pays off — I made my own luck!" Though that's a pretty simplistic take; I feel like hard work really does pay off, broadly speaking, but also luck plays a (much) bigger role than most give it credit.
    - WalterBright 3y ago
      Luck will never find the person living in his mom's basement playing video games and griping about inequity.
      - CMCDragonkai 3y ago
        I was pointing out the circular logic in these explanations. Saying someone is rich because their parents were rich (ad-infinitum) is like saying someone is lucky because they are lucky. It is not a useful explanation because you can't use this to do anything. In fact if you use this explanation to decide public policy, like say socialism, then the converse is also true, you make everybody poor, then their descendants will be poor. But obviously in our history on average, we've all been getting richer in the long run.
interroboink 3y ago
> they can still fail >> Of course. I never wrote otherwise. I did not mean to imply that you did (: You touched on a general topic, and I was speaking to that, more than your specific words. > successful people ... blamed themselves for the failures I'm sure that's true. But I'm trying to draw a thin, wiggly line between awareness of room for improvement (usually more on a rational level), and blame/judgement (usually more on an emotional level). The former is great, the latter not so much. I'd wager that there are also a whole lot of un-successful people who blamed themselves for their failures, even if they could do no better. People who hate themselves. People who are unhappy. My commentary is more directed at those people and those who would care about them, than the ones you mention. > taking responsibility ... you can succeed by learning This definitely straddles the wiggly line (: One one side is "taking responsibility," and on the other is "it's your fault." Certainly one should internalize the lesson. But hopefully not the shame/blame. Perhaps neither you nor your successful acquaintences suffer from this affliction, but in my experience many do. I realize that some people are lazy and looking for excuses to escape responsibility, so perhaps you see my viewpoint as somehow enabling or encouraging that bad behavior. I just want to point out that there are downsides in the other direction too, if taken to puritanical extremes. And I daresay the "being lazy is bad" side of the argument gets a whole lot more headspace in our culture than the "it's okay, there's nothing wrong with you" side. Hence my attempt to bring some balance. > You could consider it like airliners ... > ride a bike the first time ... The thing about airlines is that they operate in a very carefully crafted environment. Planes stay away from each other, are generally aware of each other (notwithstanding that friggin' biplane without a radio that cut me off on downwind... grr), have high maintenance standards, etc. etc. Real life can be much more dense/messy/fast-moving/full of unknowns, I find. You do not always get the luxury of knowing the variables involved. But the problem with both of your examples is that they assume you can learn and try again. And that's not always the case. What if you're a passenger on one of those airliners that crashes? What should you have done better, personally? Born in a poor country? Sorry, no re-try. Born with a damaged brain or body? Sorry, no re-try. Have abusive parents? Maybe a few can pull themselves out (probably mostly by luck or the help of others), but it will have lifelong effects. You get the idea. And those examples are extreme; there are myriad other "softer" struggles people have, with varying levels of control. Depression comes to mind. So, in conclusion, my whole long-winded reply is just trying to say: sometimes people (like you) express the "you have nobody to blame but yourself" attitude, with good intentions, directed at the sort of enabled people you were talking about, but it gets applied to other people, with heart-wrenching effects.