4 ms·
We're past the transistor equivalent of AI (GPT-4), and into the logic gate era (functions/plugins). So it's a slow period until people build an AI layer on top
by muzani 3y ago
We're past the transistor equivalent of AI (GPT-4), and into the logic gate era (functions/plugins). So it's a slow period until people build an AI layer on top of the application layer.
But computers tackled paperwork and calculations. AI tackles mental labor and attention, similar to how steam engines tackled physical work. They cover the only subset that had to be manually done by humans.
I expect the industrial revolution all over again. Higher productivity means the few will exploit the many. Some consider it unethical, maybe it is. But you can boycott unethical coffee. You can't boycott unethical guns.
The best example today is the writer's strike. We see it in art too, where companies using AI are boycotted. These sectors are likely to take a huge hit. Friends in digital art end up just changing careers - printing tshirts, becoming flight attendants and so on.
There's still a demand for these jobs, and the ones who get through the winter will be worth more.
The same goes for other professions. Those in the bottom will go first. Hiring will freeze. Those at the top will have enhanced productivity and earn more. A logo designer can brainstorm a hundred ideas in 15 mins with AI and then draw it nicely.
- quickthrower2 3y agoI don't agree with the transformer=transistor analogy. Nothing is to say we don't find a new model 10x better than transformers. That would be like perfecting very tiny and cheap transistors, before even making integrated circuits!
- jpmoral 3y agoI was very confused until I realised you weren't talking about electrical transformers.
- muzani 3y agoThe way I see it, GPT-3 is like someone with 70 IQ, while GPT-4 is like 120 IQ. It's not omnipotent, but having this block of human-level intelligence that you can just call through an API is world changing to say the least. What if they create something of effectively 200 IQ? Or 5000 IQ, where we just abstract IQ like horsepower? I would guess Amdahl's Law applies here. You get diminishing gains, to the point that a 10x better thing or 10 giga transistors on a mobile phone doesn't really make a difference. But to use the transistor analogy, the mates working on transistor or quantum theory didn't envision we'd have this world where gig economy influences elections or strangers arguing with each other at the speed of light using only their thumbs. So that's where Gustafson's Law kicks in. The 1x or 10x thing unlocks a new thing, which unlocks new levels of things all with their variations of speed, where it's a race to unlock the next next level thing. The current level thing is AI agents. What happens when you put them in a community? Will that unlock new things? There's probably a certain speed and cost restriction, then you have AI nanobot cities giving you the power to regenerate limbs.
- shinryuu 3y agoI think you misunderstand what IQ represents.