11 ms·

While the carrot problem is real, it alone doesn't explain the shittiness of rich people's advice on becoming rich. So much opportunity is either created or des

While the carrot problem is real, it alone doesn't explain the shittiness of rich people's advice on becoming rich. So much opportunity is either created or destroyed by external circumstances that we don't perceive, let alone control. Since we all subconsciously write our own creation myths, it's not easy to discover and attribute forces that we aren't aware of when looking back on our life paths. The perennial bullshit self-explanation is hard work. How hard they work is one thing that they can control, and they know they worked hard, so they assume it had more of an effect than it did... and in turn, others that worked less hard didn't succeed. For example, they might assume that their uncle was willing to set up that meeting with their first big client because they worked hard enough to be worthy of it, rather than realizing that others who worked as hard or harder lacked a connected uncle.

bruce511 3y ago
Very few business success stories credit luck with being a root cause. But in real life luck (or "chance" , if you prefer) plays a part, sometimes a significant part. It was lucky that John and Paul went to school together. It was lucky they got on together and became good friends. Thanks to that luck ee got the Beatles. Of course it (usually) takes -more- than just luck, but dig deep enough and its there.
- simonh 3y ago
  The tricky side of that is how to distinguish between luck and opportunity. Loads of people might be friends at school with someone with a great complementary talent, or have a connected uncle, or happen to start a business in a sector that about to really take off. They may even think about the opportunity and how to take advantage of it, but for whatever reason they don’t. So there are multiple factors. Some initial lucky opportunity, the insight to spot it, the willingness to take a risk on it, and hard work to see it through.
  - edmundsauto 3y ago
    Frequency and quality of opportunity is also a luck factor.
- plasticsoprano 3y ago
  Someone doesn’t listen to How I Built This. One of Guy’s questions at the end of each interview is what percentage of their success was luck and pretty much all of them from Michael Dell to Drew Houston and everyone in between put luck at a far greater percentage than any other attribute.
- WalterBright 3y ago
  I recommend reading a biography of the Beatles. Don't overlook the many years they spent playing dive bars day and night, honing their skills as a band. Brian Epstein, a nobody, recognized opportunity when he met the Beatles.
  - chefandy 3y ago
    The Beatles kind of sucked at the beginning of their career. That they became as good as they did was a shot in the dark— not the ability to divide which ones would become great. The are so many incredibly talented musicians in the world— if anybody could consistently choose the winners, record company finances would be way different. Of the bands that get signed to record labels, the percentage that become the "it" acts is microscopic.
    - WalterBright 3y ago
      > The are so many incredibly talented musicians in the world If there are so many, then they aren't incredible. It takes a lot more than talent to be successful in music. More than musical talent, too. One has to also be able to create catchy tunes, play them, fit in with your band, pick the right look for the band, the right name, packaging, etc. etc. etc. I recommend reading up on what Brian Epstein did for them. The songs of the Beatles (and Michael Jackson) are consistently better than the songs of their contemporaries. > the percentage that become the "it" acts is microscopic Are the 99% simply not that good? I enjoy music from all kinds of bands, but the quantity and consistent high quality of the Beatles' and Jackson's work are standouts.
      - chefandy 3y ago
        No. The music industry in the US has never been a meritocracy. There are tons of artists who record labels deem worthy enough to sign but they never promote. A whole lot of it comes down to luck. It seems like a lot of your viewpoint is based on am assumed consistency that doesn't exist.
        3y ago
- bostik 3y ago
  > But in real life luck (or "chance" , if you prefer) plays a part, sometimes a significant part. This reminds me of a story I heard nearly 20 years ago. (Told by a UCLA staff member.) In the early 2000's, a UCLA professor invited a successful entrepreneur to give a guest lecture on one of their business courses. During the lecture he was asked what made him the success and the fortune - and the answer was distilled to less than seven words: "Get lucky. Then stack the deck." He went on to explain that the best way to maintain a competitive edge was to make it as hard as possible for anyone else to try to follow his steps or to circumvent his position. But first you had to get lucky enough to afford it. He was not invited again. Too honest and demoralising for the students.
  - mdnahas 3y ago
    The Dean of UVA business school was heard saying “Don’t compete unless you have an unfair advantage.”
  - beebeepka 3y ago
    Maybe the professor didn't like the "sabotage competition" part. I know I didn't. I do believe luck/chance is the most important ingredient.
    - wmoser 3y ago
      It may not be sabotage necessarily. I’ve talked to MIT professors and they said one of the things they do at Sloan is emphasize gaining and holding a monopoly. Patents, trade secrets, etc. It’s the ‘moat’ that Warren Buffet and value investors look for in investments. If you do the work figuring out supports, methods, regulatory compliance, you’re not under any obligation to provide that information to anyone else. That could be construed as ‘stacking the deck’. I had a coworker that ran a firearms training company on the side and he had to let go one of his administrators because he was talking with his competition and casually telling them what sort of insurance they carried, what small business programs they had applied for, unexpected regulations they found that they had to comply with. All these things are publicly available but took a lot of time to research and money on lawyers etc. No point in helping your completion start on first or second base.
- berniedurfee 3y ago
  Being the right person in the right place at the right time can’t be taught. Yet, IMO, that’s the primary factor to being wildly successful. Knowing that you’re the right person in the right place at the right time ranks second. Taking advantage of the opportunity presented as the right person in the right place at the right time is third. Personality is fourth. Skill is somewhere below that. Ultimately, luck always sets the maxima. Though, this only applies if you’re measuring success by the amount of excess you can accumulate. You can live an incredibly fulfilling and happy life without any of the above if you set your own criteria for success to fall within the constraints of your particular circumstance.
Waterluvian 3y ago
These people need to believe they’re exceptional and therefore deserve it. In reality they (sometimes) worked very hard in order to have a chance to be lucky.
- II2II 3y ago
  In other words: you can't make luck, but you need to lay the foundations for it.
  - Waterluvian 3y ago
    Yeah. You need to work hard for a chance to roll the dice.
    - constantly 3y ago
      Totally agree. A good buddy of mine worked really hard for this. Because of all this he was able to get some major funding for his startup and has been majorly successful. And it helps his uncle too because he can reap the rewards of such a big seed round.
duped 3y ago
The carrot problem in TFA describes when there is an incentive to lie - what you're describing is something else entirely. It's not usually in the interest of someone with wealth to lie about how they got there. There's a big difference between being wrong/full of shit and outright lying because to tell the truth would harm your ability to make money. The former is just being an idiot, the latter is being a market manipulator/con /artist/grifter/etc.
- LouisSayers 3y ago
  > when there is an incentive to lie ... The one I see constantly is people selling courses on how to make money. They talk about how they made money as a consultant and decided out of the kindness of their hearts to teach others. What's clear is that the money the majority of them made wasn't from "doing the thing" but rather from the course that they're teaching. Then someone takes the course and copies + puts their own spin on it. Rinse and repeat.
404mm 3y ago
This! Timing, opportunity and location matter (wealthy parents are a good start too). Pick your choice of billionaire and look at their beginning. You can rarely see something truly jaw dropping.
- WalterBright 3y ago
  Steve Jobs? Check a picture of the house he grew up in.
  - paulryanrogers 3y ago
    Exceptions don't disprove the rule, only that it's not an absolute. Check the houses all billionaires grew up in. Most will be mansions.
    - WalterBright 3y ago
      Did Gates/Bezos/Ballmer/Allen/Musk/Page/Brin grow up in mansions?
      - wizofaus 3y ago
        I gather Musk did. But I'd agree the argument that the easiest way to become a billionaire, at least in the tech industry, is to be born to exceptionally rich parents probably doesn't hold water. Still, I don't think any of them grew up dirt poor either.
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        WalterBright 3y ago
        Oprah grew up on welfare.
        wizofaus 3y ago
cortesoft 3y ago
This is why I love the Bo Burnham answer to this question: Give up https://youtu.be/q-JgG0ECp2U https://youtu.be/q-JgG0ECp2U
WalterBright 3y ago
It's not about working hard. It's about working smart. > So much opportunity is either created or destroyed by external circumstances that we don't perceive, let alone control However, doing nothing guarantees failure. Some aspects of working smart: 1. doing the prep work so when opportunity does come your way, you are capable of taking advantage 2. placing yourself in a situation where opportunity can find you 3. learning to recognize opportunity (it often comes disguised as hard work) 4. be willing to take risks
- WalterBright 3y ago
  I've missed at least 4 opportunities to become a billionaire. I bet a lot of readers here can say the same.
  - scaredginger 3y ago
    What percentage of readers here would you estimate have missed a chance of becoming a billionaire?
    - WalterBright 3y ago
      Probably nearly all of them over 30 of sound mind and body, that live in America, avoided the lure of alcohol, drugs, and crime, got themselves educated in a useful skill, and avoided the tar pits of victimhood and grievances.
      - dumbanddumbest 3y ago
        [flagged]
      - paulryanrogers 3y ago
        By what avenue?! Inventing a unicorn business and developing the connections to sell it to the people who matter? Buying the right lottery ticket?
        3y ago
samstave 3y ago
>*on becoming rich. So much opportunity is either created or destroyed by external circumstances that we don't perceive, let alone control.* Holy F! this is in words the problem that I have had for over a decade as a consultant ; I was a consultant who was not aware of the leverage against me by consultancies for whom I executed billion $ projects and they just squirted me out after they got their fill. I cant articulate a clear picture in words at the moment - but your comment snippet really triggered the way my emotions are to those I worked for in the past and how robbed I feel. (I have my own self fulfillment - I am just recognizing how much I was truly being taken advantage of...
FreshStart 3y ago
It's a loaded dice called loaded parents, you can roll and rerolled until you are lucky. It's still hard work, but if you can continue to play even the talentless are to strike gold.

bruce511 3y ago

Very few business success stories credit luck with being a root cause. But in real life luck (or "chance" , if you prefer) plays a part, sometimes a significant part. It was lucky that John and Paul went to school together. It was lucky they got on together and became good friends. Thanks to that luck ee got the Beatles. Of course it (usually) takes -more- than just luck, but dig deep enough and its there.

simonh 3y ago
The tricky side of that is how to distinguish between luck and opportunity. Loads of people might be friends at school with someone with a great complementary talent, or have a connected uncle, or happen to start a business in a sector that about to really take off. They may even think about the opportunity and how to take advantage of it, but for whatever reason they don’t. So there are multiple factors. Some initial lucky opportunity, the insight to spot it, the willingness to take a risk on it, and hard work to see it through.
- edmundsauto 3y ago
  Frequency and quality of opportunity is also a luck factor.
plasticsoprano 3y ago
Someone doesn’t listen to How I Built This. One of Guy’s questions at the end of each interview is what percentage of their success was luck and pretty much all of them from Michael Dell to Drew Houston and everyone in between put luck at a far greater percentage than any other attribute.
WalterBright 3y ago
I recommend reading a biography of the Beatles. Don't overlook the many years they spent playing dive bars day and night, honing their skills as a band. Brian Epstein, a nobody, recognized opportunity when he met the Beatles.
- chefandy 3y ago
  The Beatles kind of sucked at the beginning of their career. That they became as good as they did was a shot in the dark— not the ability to divide which ones would become great. The are so many incredibly talented musicians in the world— if anybody could consistently choose the winners, record company finances would be way different. Of the bands that get signed to record labels, the percentage that become the "it" acts is microscopic.
  - WalterBright 3y ago
    > The are so many incredibly talented musicians in the world If there are so many, then they aren't incredible. It takes a lot more than talent to be successful in music. More than musical talent, too. One has to also be able to create catchy tunes, play them, fit in with your band, pick the right look for the band, the right name, packaging, etc. etc. etc. I recommend reading up on what Brian Epstein did for them. The songs of the Beatles (and Michael Jackson) are consistently better than the songs of their contemporaries. > the percentage that become the "it" acts is microscopic Are the 99% simply not that good? I enjoy music from all kinds of bands, but the quantity and consistent high quality of the Beatles' and Jackson's work are standouts.
    - chefandy 3y ago
      No. The music industry in the US has never been a meritocracy. There are tons of artists who record labels deem worthy enough to sign but they never promote. A whole lot of it comes down to luck. It seems like a lot of your viewpoint is based on am assumed consistency that doesn't exist.
      - 3y ago
bostik 3y ago
> But in real life luck (or "chance" , if you prefer) plays a part, sometimes a significant part. This reminds me of a story I heard nearly 20 years ago. (Told by a UCLA staff member.) In the early 2000's, a UCLA professor invited a successful entrepreneur to give a guest lecture on one of their business courses. During the lecture he was asked what made him the success and the fortune - and the answer was distilled to less than seven words: "Get lucky. Then stack the deck." He went on to explain that the best way to maintain a competitive edge was to make it as hard as possible for anyone else to try to follow his steps or to circumvent his position. But first you had to get lucky enough to afford it. He was not invited again. Too honest and demoralising for the students.
- mdnahas 3y ago
  The Dean of UVA business school was heard saying “Don’t compete unless you have an unfair advantage.”
- beebeepka 3y ago
  Maybe the professor didn't like the "sabotage competition" part. I know I didn't. I do believe luck/chance is the most important ingredient.
  - wmoser 3y ago
    It may not be sabotage necessarily. I’ve talked to MIT professors and they said one of the things they do at Sloan is emphasize gaining and holding a monopoly. Patents, trade secrets, etc. It’s the ‘moat’ that Warren Buffet and value investors look for in investments. If you do the work figuring out supports, methods, regulatory compliance, you’re not under any obligation to provide that information to anyone else. That could be construed as ‘stacking the deck’. I had a coworker that ran a firearms training company on the side and he had to let go one of his administrators because he was talking with his competition and casually telling them what sort of insurance they carried, what small business programs they had applied for, unexpected regulations they found that they had to comply with. All these things are publicly available but took a lot of time to research and money on lawyers etc. No point in helping your completion start on first or second base.
berniedurfee 3y ago
Being the right person in the right place at the right time can’t be taught. Yet, IMO, that’s the primary factor to being wildly successful. Knowing that you’re the right person in the right place at the right time ranks second. Taking advantage of the opportunity presented as the right person in the right place at the right time is third. Personality is fourth. Skill is somewhere below that. Ultimately, luck always sets the maxima. Though, this only applies if you’re measuring success by the amount of excess you can accumulate. You can live an incredibly fulfilling and happy life without any of the above if you set your own criteria for success to fall within the constraints of your particular circumstance.

Waterluvian 3y ago

These people need to believe they’re exceptional and therefore deserve it. In reality they (sometimes) worked very hard in order to have a chance to be lucky.

II2II 3y ago
In other words: you can't make luck, but you need to lay the foundations for it.
- Waterluvian 3y ago
  Yeah. You need to work hard for a chance to roll the dice.
  - constantly 3y ago
    Totally agree. A good buddy of mine worked really hard for this. Because of all this he was able to get some major funding for his startup and has been majorly successful. And it helps his uncle too because he can reap the rewards of such a big seed round.

duped 3y ago

The carrot problem in TFA describes when there is an incentive to lie - what you're describing is something else entirely. It's not usually in the interest of someone with wealth to lie about how they got there. There's a big difference between being wrong/full of shit and outright lying because to tell the truth would harm your ability to make money. The former is just being an idiot, the latter is being a market manipulator/con /artist/grifter/etc.

LouisSayers 3y ago
> when there is an incentive to lie ... The one I see constantly is people selling courses on how to make money. They talk about how they made money as a consultant and decided out of the kindness of their hearts to teach others. What's clear is that the money the majority of them made wasn't from "doing the thing" but rather from the course that they're teaching. Then someone takes the course and copies + puts their own spin on it. Rinse and repeat.

404mm 3y ago

This! Timing, opportunity and location matter (wealthy parents are a good start too). Pick your choice of billionaire and look at their beginning. You can rarely see something truly jaw dropping.

WalterBright 3y ago
Steve Jobs? Check a picture of the house he grew up in.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  Exceptions don't disprove the rule, only that it's not an absolute. Check the houses all billionaires grew up in. Most will be mansions.
  - WalterBright 3y ago
    Did Gates/Bezos/Ballmer/Allen/Musk/Page/Brin grow up in mansions?
    - wizofaus 3y ago
      I gather Musk did. But I'd agree the argument that the easiest way to become a billionaire, at least in the tech industry, is to be born to exceptionally rich parents probably doesn't hold water. Still, I don't think any of them grew up dirt poor either.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - WalterBright 3y ago
        Oprah grew up on welfare.
        wizofaus 3y ago

cortesoft 3y ago

This is why I love the Bo Burnham answer to this question: Give up https://youtu.be/q-JgG0ECp2U https://youtu.be/q-JgG0ECp2U

WalterBright 3y ago

It's not about working hard. It's about working smart. > So much opportunity is either created or destroyed by external circumstances that we don't perceive, let alone control However, doing nothing guarantees failure. Some aspects of working smart: 1. doing the prep work so when opportunity does come your way, you are capable of taking advantage 2. placing yourself in a situation where opportunity can find you 3. learning to recognize opportunity (it often comes disguised as hard work) 4. be willing to take risks

WalterBright 3y ago
I've missed at least 4 opportunities to become a billionaire. I bet a lot of readers here can say the same.
- scaredginger 3y ago
  What percentage of readers here would you estimate have missed a chance of becoming a billionaire?
  - WalterBright 3y ago
    Probably nearly all of them over 30 of sound mind and body, that live in America, avoided the lure of alcohol, drugs, and crime, got themselves educated in a useful skill, and avoided the tar pits of victimhood and grievances.
    - dumbanddumbest 3y ago
      [flagged]
    - paulryanrogers 3y ago
      By what avenue?! Inventing a unicorn business and developing the connections to sell it to the people who matter? Buying the right lottery ticket?
      - 3y ago

samstave 3y ago

>*on becoming rich. So much opportunity is either created or destroyed by external circumstances that we don't perceive, let alone control.* Holy F! this is in words the problem that I have had for over a decade as a consultant ; I was a consultant who was not aware of the leverage against me by consultancies for whom I executed billion $ projects and they just squirted me out after they got their fill. I cant articulate a clear picture in words at the moment - but your comment snippet really triggered the way my emotions are to those I worked for in the past and how robbed I feel. (I have my own self fulfillment - I am just recognizing how much I was truly being taken advantage of...

FreshStart 3y ago

It's a loaded dice called loaded parents, you can roll and rerolled until you are lucky. It's still hard work, but if you can continue to play even the talentless are to strike gold.