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"And as tools (especially AI) get better, the number of users a small team can support increases. Founders of the future may not need to worry so much about the

"And as tools (especially AI) get better, the number of users a small team can support increases. Founders of the future may not need to worry so much about these scaling pains, and work may become fun for everyone" Except fewer of your users will have jobs because the AI multiplier means smaller teams. So your addressable matter will shrink. So another race to the bottom? I'm sure we'll work it out right..

thumbuddy 3y ago
If only people could think from outside themselves for two seconds to assess technological impacts like you just have.
- fhd2 3y ago
  Awareness barely helps, it's the tragedy of the commons. I can't think of a solution other than regulation. But then if some countries regulate and others don't, you're right back at the tragedy of the commons at the international level. Reminds me of the Mass Effect games, where AI is essentially outlawed (because they revolted against the humans of course, but I can picture less scifi-ish reasons in the real world). I'm sure they're still allowed to use pathfinding algorithms and such, so they probably defined a level of net negative (to society) AI and just regulated that. Starships for example are manually piloted (surely with intelligent support systems and basic auto pilots) IIRC.
  - throwaway80492 3y ago
    Let's keep sci-fi worlds designed to make a good story out of serious discussion, please. Or let me raise a The Culture argument, where computers/AI is hyper-advanced, AIs are friends, and no regulation whatsoever is needed.
    - fhd2 3y ago
      Fair, not the best example of regulation countering the tragedy of the commons, because it's just made up. Unfortunately, any real world examples I can think of (nature preservation, gun control, ...) are seemingly controversial.
      - throwaway80492 3y ago
        What even is the specific tragedy of the commons in this case? I mean real, observable things, not theories.
        halkony 3y ago
        Isn't the tragedy of the commons how developing technology consumes our attention spans? Human attention span is a finite resource (we can only do so much in one life), and tech startups can consume a lot of that for relatively little payoff. Building a successful startup is like solving the bitcoin hash on your first few cycles. The barrier for entry is low, but you can hit it big (and consume a lot of cheap, finite* power too). The payoff is worth the risk since our communication technology is nascent and underexplored. We have an abundance of time right now because of what tech has done for us, but the cultural and environmental costs of growing tech are not well understood. Use of attention span is difficult to measure right now, but that could change in the coming decades. That said, parent comment seems to use "tragedy of the commons" as a stand in for "human nature."
throwaway80492 3y ago
Let me try this exercise: Except more of your users will have jobs because the AI multiplier means new opportunities to provide cheaper services available to more businesses, new companies that weren't economical before will be founded, entire new markets and whole new professions will be created. So your addressable market will exponentially grow. So another bull run? I'm sure we will work it out right.
- SketchySeaBeast 3y ago
  Do you have an example you're thinking of?
  - jeremyjh 3y ago
    See the last 300 years of recorded history of technological progress.
    - SketchySeaBeast 3y ago
      AI has been around for the last 300 years of recorded history of technological progress? Or is every piece of technology guaranteed to make life easier? Did the slap chop markedly improve people's lives? I understand theirs optimism (and pessimism), but optimism in and of itself doesn't make something true.
  - throwaway80492 3y ago
    I'm currently consulting for a logistics/wholesale company that uses AI to massively cut down on product catalog management and vendor/customer support costs. Their services are now affordable to much more vendors. It's been a month or so in production and they have already onboarded many new SMB vendors who previously didn't have the means to pay for their services - and thus couldn't sell nor ship through my client. The cost of onboarding a vendor has decreased 100x thanks to using AI instead of doing it manually and it's not limited by headcount and personal schedules. The products of these new vendors are now available to many big customers in a major city (a single one where we are doing a pilot), and the vendors are reporting they are already getting 2 times the volume of orders they used to get. They didn't even have the means to deliver that much product before - now they are able to do it because their logistics are handled for them by my client (economy-of-scale advantages) instead of them DIYing it, and they use the freed time to do more of their main business. The customers are super happy because now they're getting fresh food produce from local farmers just days after it's been actually produced, which increases the quality of their products (food in restaurants/catering, usually) and they are already getting significantly more positive reviews thanks to that, which brings them even more new business of higher value. And funnily enough, the products they are getting are cheaper than what they got before, even though the quality is incomparable. AI is a huge win for everybody involved: - My client is no longer forced to deal only with the biggest vendors. - The employees who used to do sales/onboarding, vendor/customer support and product catalog management are still doing it, only now they're handling 10 times more products from 3 times more vendors, and focus on special and more interesting cases instead of doing grunt work. - The vendors have gained more customers than they ever dreamed of, make more money per unit and have much cheaper logistics that they don't need to think about nor spend their time on (we're talking about guys who used to hop in a truck themselves to deliver their stuff). - The customers are getting much better quality for lower price per unit. There's also much more product categories they can choose from now. - It's more environmentally friendly and supports the local economy.
moffkalast 3y ago
It's races to the bottom all the way down.

thumbuddy 3y ago

If only people could think from outside themselves for two seconds to assess technological impacts like you just have.

fhd2 3y ago
Awareness barely helps, it's the tragedy of the commons. I can't think of a solution other than regulation. But then if some countries regulate and others don't, you're right back at the tragedy of the commons at the international level. Reminds me of the Mass Effect games, where AI is essentially outlawed (because they revolted against the humans of course, but I can picture less scifi-ish reasons in the real world). I'm sure they're still allowed to use pathfinding algorithms and such, so they probably defined a level of net negative (to society) AI and just regulated that. Starships for example are manually piloted (surely with intelligent support systems and basic auto pilots) IIRC.
- throwaway80492 3y ago
  Let's keep sci-fi worlds designed to make a good story out of serious discussion, please. Or let me raise a The Culture argument, where computers/AI is hyper-advanced, AIs are friends, and no regulation whatsoever is needed.
  - fhd2 3y ago
    Fair, not the best example of regulation countering the tragedy of the commons, because it's just made up. Unfortunately, any real world examples I can think of (nature preservation, gun control, ...) are seemingly controversial.
    - throwaway80492 3y ago
      What even is the specific tragedy of the commons in this case? I mean real, observable things, not theories.
      - halkony 3y ago
        Isn't the tragedy of the commons how developing technology consumes our attention spans? Human attention span is a finite resource (we can only do so much in one life), and tech startups can consume a lot of that for relatively little payoff. Building a successful startup is like solving the bitcoin hash on your first few cycles. The barrier for entry is low, but you can hit it big (and consume a lot of cheap, finite* power too). The payoff is worth the risk since our communication technology is nascent and underexplored. We have an abundance of time right now because of what tech has done for us, but the cultural and environmental costs of growing tech are not well understood. Use of attention span is difficult to measure right now, but that could change in the coming decades. That said, parent comment seems to use "tragedy of the commons" as a stand in for "human nature."

throwaway80492 3y ago

Let me try this exercise: Except more of your users will have jobs because the AI multiplier means new opportunities to provide cheaper services available to more businesses, new companies that weren't economical before will be founded, entire new markets and whole new professions will be created. So your addressable market will exponentially grow. So another bull run? I'm sure we will work it out right.

SketchySeaBeast 3y ago
Do you have an example you're thinking of?
- jeremyjh 3y ago
  See the last 300 years of recorded history of technological progress.
  - SketchySeaBeast 3y ago
    AI has been around for the last 300 years of recorded history of technological progress? Or is every piece of technology guaranteed to make life easier? Did the slap chop markedly improve people's lives? I understand theirs optimism (and pessimism), but optimism in and of itself doesn't make something true.
- throwaway80492 3y ago
  I'm currently consulting for a logistics/wholesale company that uses AI to massively cut down on product catalog management and vendor/customer support costs. Their services are now affordable to much more vendors. It's been a month or so in production and they have already onboarded many new SMB vendors who previously didn't have the means to pay for their services - and thus couldn't sell nor ship through my client. The cost of onboarding a vendor has decreased 100x thanks to using AI instead of doing it manually and it's not limited by headcount and personal schedules. The products of these new vendors are now available to many big customers in a major city (a single one where we are doing a pilot), and the vendors are reporting they are already getting 2 times the volume of orders they used to get. They didn't even have the means to deliver that much product before - now they are able to do it because their logistics are handled for them by my client (economy-of-scale advantages) instead of them DIYing it, and they use the freed time to do more of their main business. The customers are super happy because now they're getting fresh food produce from local farmers just days after it's been actually produced, which increases the quality of their products (food in restaurants/catering, usually) and they are already getting significantly more positive reviews thanks to that, which brings them even more new business of higher value. And funnily enough, the products they are getting are cheaper than what they got before, even though the quality is incomparable. AI is a huge win for everybody involved: - My client is no longer forced to deal only with the biggest vendors. - The employees who used to do sales/onboarding, vendor/customer support and product catalog management are still doing it, only now they're handling 10 times more products from 3 times more vendors, and focus on special and more interesting cases instead of doing grunt work. - The vendors have gained more customers than they ever dreamed of, make more money per unit and have much cheaper logistics that they don't need to think about nor spend their time on (we're talking about guys who used to hop in a truck themselves to deliver their stuff). - The customers are getting much better quality for lower price per unit. There's also much more product categories they can choose from now. - It's more environmentally friendly and supports the local economy.

moffkalast 3y ago

It's races to the bottom all the way down.