4 ms·

I have no doubt you're more immersed in these debates than I am. I'm just a casual bystander who (admittedly, maybe too credulously) accepts the mainstream view

I have no doubt you're more immersed in these debates than I am. I'm just a casual bystander who (admittedly, maybe too credulously) accepts the mainstream view on the topic. However, given that you're primarily citing Twitter threads rather than scientific papers, my heuristic alarm bells are going off. Has anybody published a good summary of the case for the lab leak in any reputable journal or biorxiv that I can take a look at?

tripletao 3y ago
I linked to Alex Washburne's criticism of Pekar (the "two lineages" paper) on biorxiv above, and I believe that's generally sound. (Note that he's got a different preprint alleging genomic evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was assembled using BsaI and BsmBI, which I believe is quite wrong.) That Twitter criticism is from a pseudonymous account, but it's clearly some kind of relevant academic. Prominent journals have been unfortunately willing to publish low-quality work in support of natural zoonosis; I assume you don't think pangolins are the proximal host, but it took Nature more than a year to correct "Isolation of SARS-CoV-2-related coronavirus from Malayan pangolins". David Relman published a note back in 2020, which doesn't say much but does refute the arguments of "Proximal origin": https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2021133117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2021133117 There's no more recent summary that I'd recommend. The most notable development since then is perhaps the absence of notable developments; there's still very little evidence on either side, and these arguments often devolve into whether the PRC is covering up a research accident or covering up zoonotic origin. If SARS-CoV-2 did arise from a research accident, then the evidence confirming that may be an intelligence matter (like a leaked document) rather than new science. For example, the Sverdlovsk anthrax incident wasn't confirmed to be a lab accident until the fall of the Soviet Union. Alina Chan's book is written for a popular audience, but well-referenced into the scientific literature. Jesse Bloom does excellent work, but his papers address particular narrow questions, nothing like a summary.

tripletao 3y ago

I linked to Alex Washburne's criticism of Pekar (the "two lineages" paper) on biorxiv above, and I believe that's generally sound. (Note that he's got a different preprint alleging genomic evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was assembled using BsaI and BsmBI, which I believe is quite wrong.) That Twitter criticism is from a pseudonymous account, but it's clearly some kind of relevant academic. Prominent journals have been unfortunately willing to publish low-quality work in support of natural zoonosis; I assume you don't think pangolins are the proximal host, but it took Nature more than a year to correct "Isolation of SARS-CoV-2-related coronavirus from Malayan pangolins". David Relman published a note back in 2020, which doesn't say much but does refute the arguments of "Proximal origin": https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2021133117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2021133117 There's no more recent summary that I'd recommend. The most notable development since then is perhaps the absence of notable developments; there's still very little evidence on either side, and these arguments often devolve into whether the PRC is covering up a research accident or covering up zoonotic origin. If SARS-CoV-2 did arise from a research accident, then the evidence confirming that may be an intelligence matter (like a leaked document) rather than new science. For example, the Sverdlovsk anthrax incident wasn't confirmed to be a lab accident until the fall of the Soviet Union. Alina Chan's book is written for a popular audience, but well-referenced into the scientific literature. Jesse Bloom does excellent work, but his papers address particular narrow questions, nothing like a summary.