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This is a common mistake in predicting the future. Like in the 90s, seeing that oil reserves are getting harder to find and assuming that humans will run out of

This is a common mistake in predicting the future. Like in the 90s, seeing that oil reserves are getting harder to find and assuming that humans will run out of oil in 50 years. Trends don't exist in a vacuum. Especially in regards to technology. AI doomers are expecting everything to stay the same except capabilities of bots, especially to do bad.

defrost 3y ago
Another common mistake is strawmanning history. > assuming that humans will run out of oil in 50 years. That was never a tenet of peak oil, which still stands - the claim was that at a certain point extraction costs per barrel will climb and continue to climb making fossil fuels increasingly expensive. The claim was not that oil will run out, the claim was that only the very rich and nation states will be able to afford oil. Interestingly we may see a demand driven peak oil in the near future before we see the inevitable production constrained peak (as fossil fuels are vast but finite and were never going to last two centuries at the ever increasing demand we put upon them). https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230726-an-experts-guide-to-peak-oil-and-what-it-really-means https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230726-an-experts-guide...
- gitfan86 3y ago
  Obviously, I'm not sure how anyone could have read my comment and thought I was claiming the people were claiming that every single drop of oil on the planet had been extracted and used within 50 years.
  - defrost 3y ago
    Obviously? I've been in the energy and minerals exploration game for a few decades and I've seen all manner of odd things said with a straight face by all kinds of people. While I have no a priori knowledge about yourself specifically, I have seen people regularly dismiss notions that minerals and energy get increasingly hard to find and will cost increasingly more to extract. Peak oil is a specific discussion about oil resources and one that is often dismissed as (not the statement you made) "rubbish, we were supposed to run out, that never happened" etc. The claim in the nineties was that given demand for oil was ever increasing there would come a time when no ordinary individual would be able to afford oil .. and we do appear to be on that trajectory in the world, even if certain demographics are sheilded from that reality. Your GP comment misframed that and described that as a common mistake mistake in predicting the future.
    - gitfan86 3y ago
      Peak oil is only relevant in a world where there is no alternative cheap energy source. The average poor person doesn't care if oil costs $500/gallon if they have access to very cheap electricity and very cheap and good electric transportation.

defrost 3y ago

Another common mistake is strawmanning history. > assuming that humans will run out of oil in 50 years. That was never a tenet of peak oil, which still stands - the claim was that at a certain point extraction costs per barrel will climb and continue to climb making fossil fuels increasingly expensive. The claim was not that oil will run out, the claim was that only the very rich and nation states will be able to afford oil. Interestingly we may see a demand driven peak oil in the near future before we see the inevitable production constrained peak (as fossil fuels are vast but finite and were never going to last two centuries at the ever increasing demand we put upon them). https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230726-an-experts-guide-to-peak-oil-and-what-it-really-means https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230726-an-experts-guide...

gitfan86 3y ago
Obviously, I'm not sure how anyone could have read my comment and thought I was claiming the people were claiming that every single drop of oil on the planet had been extracted and used within 50 years.
- defrost 3y ago
  Obviously? I've been in the energy and minerals exploration game for a few decades and I've seen all manner of odd things said with a straight face by all kinds of people. While I have no a priori knowledge about yourself specifically, I have seen people regularly dismiss notions that minerals and energy get increasingly hard to find and will cost increasingly more to extract. Peak oil is a specific discussion about oil resources and one that is often dismissed as (not the statement you made) "rubbish, we were supposed to run out, that never happened" etc. The claim in the nineties was that given demand for oil was ever increasing there would come a time when no ordinary individual would be able to afford oil .. and we do appear to be on that trajectory in the world, even if certain demographics are sheilded from that reality. Your GP comment misframed that and described that as a common mistake mistake in predicting the future.
  - gitfan86 3y ago
    Peak oil is only relevant in a world where there is no alternative cheap energy source. The average poor person doesn't care if oil costs $500/gallon if they have access to very cheap electricity and very cheap and good electric transportation.