By hyping ocean surface temps they're only telling half the story. Raging hurricanes are driven by heat down below but they are difference engines that need >c

By hyping ocean surface temps they're only telling half the story. Raging hurricanes are driven by heat down below but they are difference engines that need >clean< cool air with some moisture above to jumpstart a strong organized storm. Dust in the air warms it and inhibits moisture and this time of year presence or absence of a Sahara dust plume is the deciding factor. Sea surface temps will always scream their readiness in the tropics but this ( https://www.trackthetropics.com/saharan-air-layer-sal-tracking/ https://www.trackthetropics.com/saharan-air-layer-sal-tracki... ) is your go-to map for storm likelihood. Note that between the gauntlet of dust there are only small disorganized cloud systems coming off of Africa. Looks like not for a month at least.