Kind of an overestimation. From the launch site to actually have a trajectory that hits the inhabited part of the island isn't that easy. One Raptor getting hi

Kind of an overestimation. From the launch site to actually have a trajectory that hits the inhabited part of the island isn't that easy. One Raptor getting hit wouldn't be enough. The whole central steerable core of engines being knocked out, and not only that, in a way that shifts the trajectory in the exact 'right' place is incredibly unlikely. Specially as the rocket would likely also try differential steering. The flight termination system might very well have worked just fine in most circumstances. By the time it was triggered the rocket was in strange position and already flipping. We don't have official information yet but it seems likely that had something to do with it. For anything bad to happen a huge number of very low-probability events would have to combine to lead to that outcome.