5 ms·

It will be interesting to see if this line starts moving back north if (when?) summers and heat in general continue to be this brutal. I'm a native Floridian an

It will be interesting to see if this line starts moving back north if (when?) summers and heat in general continue to be this brutal. I'm a native Floridian and love it here, but I'll be damned if I haven't given thought to moving back somewhere a little more temperate after these past 2-3 months.

autoexec 3y ago
That's my guess. People will increasingly be moving away from the coasts due to flooding and storms and moving north to avoid the heat and other hazards (insects, diseases, etc) that are moving north and spreading.
- fooker 3y ago
  Coastal real estate prices don't seem to match this prediction.
  - autoexec 3y ago
    It does in some places (https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/924239753/is-the-risk-of-sea-level-rise-affecting-florida-home-prices-a-new-study-says-yes https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/924239753/is-the-risk-of-sea-...) but I suspect it'll get much worse as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of storms and tax payers get more and more fed up with paying to repair the damage again and again in flood prone areas. (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/10/01/repeatedly-flooded-properties-will-continue-to-cost-taxpayers-billions-of-dollars https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/...). California will likely be a hold-out much longer than other states. Earthquakes, wildfires, rolling blackouts, water shortages/restrictions, high unemployment, insane housing costs, high cost of living, and the worst traffic in the country haven't been enough to keep people away from California.
    - fooker 3y ago
      Florida is not affected by this yet, home prices have steadily increased except for a sell off during the pandemic. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI
      - JamesSwift 3y ago
        Florida is going to be pretty turbulent in the nearish future I think. Theres already a looming insurance crisis as more and more providers pull out and/or raise rates. A serious hurricane could trigger some big price movements across the state I think.
        fooker 3y ago
        You could make serious money (say.. 3-10x of the amount you put in) by shorting companies and buying puts if you strongly believe this.

autoexec 3y ago

That's my guess. People will increasingly be moving away from the coasts due to flooding and storms and moving north to avoid the heat and other hazards (insects, diseases, etc) that are moving north and spreading.

fooker 3y ago
Coastal real estate prices don't seem to match this prediction.
- autoexec 3y ago
  It does in some places (https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/924239753/is-the-risk-of-sea-level-rise-affecting-florida-home-prices-a-new-study-says-yes https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/924239753/is-the-risk-of-sea-...) but I suspect it'll get much worse as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of storms and tax payers get more and more fed up with paying to repair the damage again and again in flood prone areas. (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/10/01/repeatedly-flooded-properties-will-continue-to-cost-taxpayers-billions-of-dollars https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/...). California will likely be a hold-out much longer than other states. Earthquakes, wildfires, rolling blackouts, water shortages/restrictions, high unemployment, insane housing costs, high cost of living, and the worst traffic in the country haven't been enough to keep people away from California.
  - fooker 3y ago
    Florida is not affected by this yet, home prices have steadily increased except for a sell off during the pandemic. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI
    - JamesSwift 3y ago
      Florida is going to be pretty turbulent in the nearish future I think. Theres already a looming insurance crisis as more and more providers pull out and/or raise rates. A serious hurricane could trigger some big price movements across the state I think.
      - fooker 3y ago
        You could make serious money (say.. 3-10x of the amount you put in) by shorting companies and buying puts if you strongly believe this.