3 ms·

i'm currently wandering the nyc streets around evenings, making notes about the buildings with the largest concentrations of dark windows in areas i want to liv

i'm currently wandering the nyc streets around evenings, making notes about the buildings with the largest concentrations of dark windows in areas i want to live in someone realizing they cant sell a 'hot' property is probably my best bet at getting an affordable 'starter apartment'...

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
baybal2 3y ago
Real estate is not that big of a money laundering channel. It's mostly the most unsophisticated mobs. The absolute majority of laundry is happening in 100% legal banks, and investment funds. Any baddie who can launder few billion dollars, can buy a bank completely legally.
- jazzyjackson 3y ago
  > Real estate is not that big of a money laundering channel. I don't have numbers but I'll suggest that even if real estate is a small fraction of all money laundering (and I agree with you about banks), if even a percent or two of manhattan real estate supply is held up in schemes that could make a big impact on price. I know AirBnB always catches blame for skyrocketing rent, while in any city they represent a vanishly small portion of housing stock, for sure outnumbered by vacant units. [actually it occurs to me that renting units for exorbitant prices on airbnb to ghost clientele would be a decent money laundering scheme, no?] (For example, in San Francisco there are ~5000 listings on AirBnB [0], while ~40,000 homes sit vacant [1], for a population of what, 800,000 ?) So a small change in housing supply can have a big effect on cost of housing, which is why I expect people are clamoring for a crack down. [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20210720175121/https://www.magnifymoney.com/blog/news/short-term-rentals-airbnb-study/ https://web.archive.org/web/20210720175121/https://www.magni... [1] https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/how-many-vacant-homes-are-there-in-San-Francisco-16822916.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/how-many-vacant-homes...
morkalork 3y ago
Why make notes when you can automate the task ;) https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/condo-units-sitting-empty-in-toronto https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/condo-units-sitting-emp...
- jareklupinski 3y ago
  that's fantastic! for a second i was thinking facetiously about zipping a camera-equipped drone up and down the streets as fast as it can to hoover this up automatically... but you could probably get an entire city's worth of information at once using a private small craft at altitude with a good lens? this would be an expensive capture, but if there are enough people interested, the costs could be split...
  - deegles 3y ago
    Do it on a consistent enough basis and you could sell the data to hedge funds no problem.
  - gopher_space 3y ago
    Find the NYC assessors office's website and dig around until you find where they're dumping scheduled exports from their ancient cores. The format might be tab-delimited ebcdic but the data will be up to date. See if you can cross-reference dark windows with anything. Or just ask a commercial real estate agent.
    - jareklupinski 3y ago
      interesting, i've been combing the permits and dept of health sites but I didn't think to check the assessors office... will do :) yup the real estate agent will always be the last step anyway, there's just so many I want to be really targeted with my approach
      - gopher_space 3y ago
        A good Commercial Real Estate (CRE) agent will understand why the lights are out and know if there's anything in the data that'd let you predict or make use of that information. There could literally be a column called MiscExplns that flags what you're looking for but you'll never know. Find a CRE who'd enjoy breaking their domain down for you over dinner or a beverage, or find one who also wants to ask questions about your domain and hang out a bit. It's difficult to self-educate in this area thanks to all the noise online.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

baybal2 3y ago

Real estate is not that big of a money laundering channel. It's mostly the most unsophisticated mobs. The absolute majority of laundry is happening in 100% legal banks, and investment funds. Any baddie who can launder few billion dollars, can buy a bank completely legally.

jazzyjackson 3y ago
> Real estate is not that big of a money laundering channel. I don't have numbers but I'll suggest that even if real estate is a small fraction of all money laundering (and I agree with you about banks), if even a percent or two of manhattan real estate supply is held up in schemes that could make a big impact on price. I know AirBnB always catches blame for skyrocketing rent, while in any city they represent a vanishly small portion of housing stock, for sure outnumbered by vacant units. [actually it occurs to me that renting units for exorbitant prices on airbnb to ghost clientele would be a decent money laundering scheme, no?] (For example, in San Francisco there are ~5000 listings on AirBnB [0], while ~40,000 homes sit vacant [1], for a population of what, 800,000 ?) So a small change in housing supply can have a big effect on cost of housing, which is why I expect people are clamoring for a crack down. [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20210720175121/https://www.magnifymoney.com/blog/news/short-term-rentals-airbnb-study/ https://web.archive.org/web/20210720175121/https://www.magni... [1] https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/how-many-vacant-homes-are-there-in-San-Francisco-16822916.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/how-many-vacant-homes...

morkalork 3y ago

Why make notes when you can automate the task ;) https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/condo-units-sitting-empty-in-toronto https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/condo-units-sitting-emp...

jareklupinski 3y ago
that's fantastic! for a second i was thinking facetiously about zipping a camera-equipped drone up and down the streets as fast as it can to hoover this up automatically... but you could probably get an entire city's worth of information at once using a private small craft at altitude with a good lens? this would be an expensive capture, but if there are enough people interested, the costs could be split...
- deegles 3y ago
  Do it on a consistent enough basis and you could sell the data to hedge funds no problem.
- gopher_space 3y ago
  Find the NYC assessors office's website and dig around until you find where they're dumping scheduled exports from their ancient cores. The format might be tab-delimited ebcdic but the data will be up to date. See if you can cross-reference dark windows with anything. Or just ask a commercial real estate agent.
  - jareklupinski 3y ago
    interesting, i've been combing the permits and dept of health sites but I didn't think to check the assessors office... will do :) yup the real estate agent will always be the last step anyway, there's just so many I want to be really targeted with my approach
    - gopher_space 3y ago
      A good Commercial Real Estate (CRE) agent will understand why the lights are out and know if there's anything in the data that'd let you predict or make use of that information. There could literally be a column called MiscExplns that flags what you're looking for but you'll never know. Find a CRE who'd enjoy breaking their domain down for you over dinner or a beverage, or find one who also wants to ask questions about your domain and hang out a bit. It's difficult to self-educate in this area thanks to all the noise online.